| Sep 2nd, 2008
Most unsophisticated sports bettors hit the gridiron
running, with little or no concern for whether their best chance for success
rests with college football betting, NFL betting or a combination of both.
To be sure, while the NCAA and NFL games fundamentally are the same, subtle
dissimilarities between the Saturday and Sunday products, as they relate to a
player’s ability to digest and understand data, can make the difference between
winning and losing:
Size Matters: There are more than 120 college teams on the
college football betting board while the NFL has just 32 teams. So, by pure
mathematics alone, it’s about four times as difficult to keep up with college
football as it is with the NFL.
Those large college numbers offer the bettor both risk and opportunity. For
football bettors with the time, exploring the college football betting options
may be the more rewarding choice. After all, in their rush to post wagering
pointspreads, even the most experienced oddsmakers can’t get every line correct
every week and occasionally misfire on a few games. That’s far more likely to
happen at the collegiate level where, as the old adage goes, “bookmakers have
to be right every time; bettors just once” gains added credence.
Getting to the Point(spread): You may
live the rest of your life and not see Rice beat Texas
in a college football game but no such stark mismatches exist in the NFL. In
fact, even the Super Bowl champion Indianapolis Colts lost outright to Houston,
Jacksonville and Tennessee
last season, three teams that failed to make the playoffs. The largest
pointspread differential in the NFL last year was 18, when the Colts welcomed
the Titans to Indianapolis, Oct. 8.
For the record, Indy prevailed, 14-13, but failed to cover.
The first 16 games of the 2007 NFL season opened with no team favored by more
than seven points and a whopping nine contests where the line was a field goal
or less.
Contrast that with the opening weekend of this year’s college season when no
fewer than 16 games closed with pointspreads greater than 18, including two
games above 30 and another pair of contests with lines of 40 points or more.
The larger numbers in the college football betting game also create greater
volatility. For example, while top ranked USC opened as a 42 ½-point favorite
over Idaho, Sept. 1, gamblers
pounded the Trojans, driving the line up to -49, a 6 ½-point swing that you’ll
never see happen in the NFL. USC failed to cover, winning, 38-10.
Also on Sept. 1, Michigan State
was bet up from -17 to -23 against Alabama-Birmingham. The Spartans covered
easily, 55-18.
This disparity in pointspreads creates a bit of a betting dilemma for bettors.
The more conservative player may be better off concentrating on NFL betting,
where no team is ever in a “can’t win” situation and the bettor isn’t apt to
feel like a fool because a line has shifted significantly from the time it was
posted to the time the player bet it.
The bettor with a more adventuresome streak may opt for college football
betting where he could have, conceivably, laid 42 ½ with USC and taken 49 with Idaho.
He would have collected on both bets if the Trojans has won by 43-48 points. It
didn’t work out this time but these highly desirable “middles,” where the
shop-wise bettor gets both ends of a moving line, are available more often in
the college game than its NFL counterpart.
The Known Versus the Unknown: With teams required to list
injuries and the probability of players participating in each week’s game,
there are fewer surprises in NFL betting. College teams, however, are under no
obligation to post injuries and/or suspensions, adding another level of
uncertainty to the NCAA wagering experience.
I Second That Emotion: Although division contests can stir the juices, for the
most part, professional football players operate on an even emotional keel.
Even NFL coaches’ halftime speeches tend to be more about Xs and Os than
motivation.
But the college game, where impressionable teenagers dominate, is more
influenced by emotion, witness a motivated Appalachian State, which scored an
astonishing upset of overconfident Michigan,
Sept. 1.
That’s just another factor that makes college football betting more difficult
and more risky, but potentially more rewarding than the NFL.
When it comes to football betting, a player has to find his comfort zone.
This article was written by Luken Karel
for http://www.thegreek.com.
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