Joe Duffy (OffshoreInsiders.com)
Long time clients know that we do not use a lot of ATS
trends in our handicapping. However,
knowing the public loves them, we do compile such angles for our daily content.
It is geared towards non-clients who do utilize them in their own
Over the years, we noticed an unarguable pattern that our
data mining sources will turn up a disproportionate number of statistically
significant over/under trends as opposed to wins and losses against the
spread. We are ecstatic to see the
success of my long-time colleague, Stevie Vincent of BetOnSports360.com I’ve known Stevie
since he was my Executive Editor of the Scorephone “Tailgate Party” pre-game
information reports, that if I may say so, we made famous in the 1980s and
Stevie is the founder of forensic handicapping, a
complicated process that in short is based on the science of uncovering
patterns in the past to accurately predict the future. Trends are the basis of it, but application
requires systematic and methodical diligence, not just mere trend
Vincent believes it is very obvious why it is easier to find
patterns in totals. Sports is about making adjustments, but it is “much easier
and therefore more common, to change the methods than it is to augment than the
Forensic handicapping has proven, what seems so simplistic.
“If, for example, a football team has lost three straight games in high scoring
blowouts, passing the ball 70 percent of the time and running 30 percent, the
area to adjust is obvious” and according to his contention and research, in
most cases coaches and teams will adjust the pace or style they’ve employed. “But
it does not mean the results will change”.
He says one can uncover patterns, in which in such
hypothetical model, that team may fiddle with and instead lose a lower scoring
game. But he asserts, there will be a lot more
historical patterns that suggest the approach will change even if the result
Approach, pace, or whatever term gamblers wish to assign, is
what generally will effect the total more.
The actual success in executing it determines the final score.
While Vincent states emphatically “the end results (spread
win or loss) follow a distinctive pattern themselves” but they will not pass
the necessary laws of probability at as high of a rate as totals handicapping.
With the success BetOnSports360.com
has had since Stevie finally made his
professional handicapping debut in April, we would be “totally” nuts not to
listen to his wisdom with over/under plays.
Joe Duffy’s sports betting selections are at www.GodsTips.com He is former General Manager of the
Freescoreboard scorephone network and CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, the
premier hub of world-class handicappers.