Monday Night Football delivers a fascinating AFC East clash as the New York Jets (0-3) head to South Beach to face the Miami Dolphins (0-3). Both teams are still searching for their first win of the 2025 NFL season, and the total is where sharp bettors may find the best edge. Veteran handicapper Frank Sawyer breaks it down with a lean to the Over 44 (-110) at Bovada.

In this article, we’ll look at key betting angles, team trends, and why the Over makes sense in this primetime matchup. Whether you’re new to betting or a seasoned pro, you’ll get actionable insights here—and remember, for more free and premium picks, check out PicksDepot.com.

Game Context

• Matchup: New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
• Date/Time: September 29, 2025 – 7:15 PM ET (Monday Night Football)
• Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
• Odds (as of writing): Total 44, Miami slight favorite

Both franchises enter winless, yet motivated. That desperation often produces high-variance games where scoring can outpace expectations.

Why Frank Sawyer Leans Over 44

Frank Sawyer’s “Cutting Room Floor” plays highlight games that nearly made his premium card. For Monday night, he cut but still recommends the Over:

• Jets Trends:
• 8 of their last 12 have gone Over after a loss by six or fewer points.
• 7 of their last 10 road games have gone Over.
• Dolphins Trends:
• 6 of their last 9 games went Over following a road loss.
• 10 of their last 15 home games have gone Over when totals are between 42.5 and 49.

Both defenses have been leaky, and with two teams pressing for their first win, the game script points toward an aggressive offensive approach. Shop around for the best live lines at OddsLogic

Betting Breakdown

New York Jets

• Under new head coach Aaron Glenn, the Jets have been competitive but unable to close. Last week’s 29-27 road loss at Tampa Bay exemplifies their fight but also their defensive vulnerabilities.
• The passing attack has shown flashes, but turnovers have set them back. A looser Monday night gameplan could lean heavily on vertical passing.

Miami Dolphins

• Miami’s offense under pressure has still produced chunk plays, even in losses. Their 31-21 setback at Buffalo exposed defensive issues but reaffirmed their ability to score in spurts.
• At home, the Dolphins traditionally play faster and benefit from South Florida humidity wearing down opposing defenses.

Key Angles for Bettors

1. Primetime Points: NFL primetime games often bring elevated scoring due to scripted drives and aggressive playcalling. Miami’s historical Over trends in this spot only add fuel.
2. Winless Urgency: Teams at 0-3 typically abandon conservative gameplans—expect more 4th-down attempts and risk-taking, which favors Overs.
3. Market Positioning: With the total set at a modest 44, there’s value in the middle range, where both offenses can exploit tired defenses in the second half.

Frank Sawyer’s Streaks and Performance

Frank Sawyer isn’t just another capper—his record speaks volumes:

• 14-2 all-sports run with 25*/20*/10* featured plays.
• 12-1 football run with his biggest releases.
• 30-43 (70%) NFL prime-time record, with multiple clean sweeps this season.

When Sawyer identifies value on totals, it’s worth paying attention. You can follow his premium plays directly at PicksDepot.com.

Final Word: Bet the Over

With both teams desperate, defenses overexposed, and primetime pressure on, this game sets up perfectly for a higher-scoring affair. NFL free picks Jets vs. Dolphins Over 44 (-110) has enough supporting data to merit serious consideration for your Monday night card.

Where to Get More Winning Picks

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