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From Prohibition to Proliferation: The History of Legal Sports Betting in the U.S. |
| Apr 29th, 2025
Early History and Federal BansIn the early 20th century, sports betting in the United States largely existed in the shadows. The 1919 "Black Sox" scandal – in which Chicago White Sox players conspired with gamblers to fix the World Series – exemplified the fears about gambling’s threat to sports integrity. In response, virtually all states outlawed bookmakers, and the federal government took steps to curb betting. The Interstate Wire Act of 1961, for example, made it illegal to use wire communications for sports wagering across state lines. By the mid-20th century, Nevada stood alone as a haven for legal sports betting, having legalized it in 1949 as part of the state’s broader embrace of regulated gambling. Nowhere else could fans legally wager on games, so an underground betting economy thrived nationwide, often run by organized crime or offshore operations. Efforts to clamp down continued through the decades. In 1978, Delaware briefly introduced a state-run NFL parlay game, and Oregon later ran a sports lottery, but these were exceptions in a landscape dominated by prohibition. Sports leagues remained openly hostile to gambling, worried that betting scandals could erode public trust in their games. This set the stage for a sweeping federal ban: the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act. Follow us on Twitter and all socials @OffshoreInsider PASPA: The 1992 Ban and Its ImpactIn 1992, Congress passed the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA) – also known as the "Bradley Act," after its sponsor, Senator Bill Bradley. PASPA aimed to halt the spread of state-sanctioned sports betting. It prohibited any state from licensing or authorizing wagering on the outcome of amateur or professional sports contests. The law took effect on January 1, 1993, essentially freezing the status quo: only states that had already approved sports betting or sports lotteries were grandfathered in. This exemption was narrow. Nevada was permitted to continue full sports wagering, while Delaware, Oregon, and Montana were allowed to keep limited sports lottery games. A special carve-out gave New Jersey one year to legalize betting in Atlantic City casinos, but the state failed to act in time, thereby falling under the ban. Under PASPA, legal sports betting became virtually synonymous with Las Vegas. For the next quarter century, if an American wanted to place a legal bet on the Super Bowl or March Madness, Nevada was essentially the only game in town. In other states, millions of fans still bet on sports – but they did so illegally through local bookies or offshore online sportsbooks, a booming black market estimated at $150 billion in annual wagers. The major professional leagues (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL) and the NCAA staunchly defended PASPA, arguing that expanding gambling would endanger the integrity of sports. PASPA also had odd consequences: for example, when Delaware tried to broaden its sports lottery in 2009, courts blocked the move, ruling that PASPA only allowed the parlay-style NFL bets Delaware had offered in the 1970s. By the 2010s, however, attitudes toward sports betting were slowly shifting – even within the leagues – and New Jersey would soon ignite a legal challenge that changed everything. Murphy v. NCAA: The Supreme Court DecisionThe first cracks in PASPA’s façade appeared in New Jersey. Facing declining casino revenues in the late 2000s, New Jersey voters approved a referendum in 2011 to legalize sports betting at casinos and racetracks. The state’s legislature enacted a law to allow wagers, directly defying PASPA. The NCAA and major sports leagues promptly sued to stop the law, leading to a high-profile court battle. After years of legal wrangling – the case was initially titled NCAA v. Christieafter then-Governor Chris Christie – it arrived at the U.S. Supreme Court under Governor Phil Murphy’s name as Murphy v. NCAA. On May 14, 2018, the Supreme Court struck down PASPA as unconstitutional, in a 6-3 decision. Justice Samuel Alito, writing for the majority, held that PASPA violated the Tenth Amendment’s “anti-commandeering” principle, which prevents Congress from controlling state policy choices. In essence, the Court said, if Congress wanted to ban sports gambling, it could do so directly – but it could not simply order states not to legalize it. This landmark ruling repealed the federal ban, freeing each state to decide if it wants to legalize sports betting. The reaction was swift. Within hours, sportsbooks in Nevada were joined by celebratory statements from companies like FanDuel and DraftKings – fantasy sports platforms that announced plans to enter the new legal betting market – and by officials in states like New Jersey who had legislation ready to go. The sports world also underwent a remarkable about-face. Leagues that once fought tooth-and-nail against gambling shifted toward engagement and monetization. The NBA and MLB, for instance, began securing “integrity fees” (or data-sharing agreements) from new sportsbooks, and the NFL eventually partnered with betting operators for official league sponsorships. What had been a legal question was now a marketplace opportunity. State-by-State Legalization BoomWith PASPA gone, a wave of legalization swept the nation. New Jersey moved first – mere weeks after the Supreme Court decision, Governor Murphy placed New Jersey’s inaugural legal bet in mid-June 2018. Delaware, which already had limited sports gaming, actually beat New Jersey to the punch by launching full-scale sports betting on June 5, 2018. By the end of 2018, a handful of states had operational sportsbooks: Mississippi and West Virginia opened sportsbooks at casinos that summer, New Mexico saw its tribal casinos start offering sports bets under existing gaming compacts, and Pennsylvania and Rhode Island went live by year’s end. The floodgates truly opened in 2019 and 2020 as more state legislatures embraced the new revenue source. Nevada was no longer the lone outpost; states across the Midwest, Northeast, and beyond joined the fold:
Each state forged its own path, leading to a patchwork of regulatory approaches. In some states, casinos and racetracks serve as the only licensed operators, while others allow numerous online sportsbooks to compete for customers. New Jersey and Colorado, for example, adopted an open model with many competing apps (FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars, and smaller brands like PointsBet and Barstool Sportsbook among others). In contrast, a few jurisdictions opted for a single operator model: New Hampshire and Oregon chose one exclusive sportsbook (DraftKings) via their state lotteries, and Rhode Island went with a lottery-run system (initially powered by William Hill/Caesars). Some states only permit in-person betting (for instance, Mississippi allows mobile betting only when physically on a casino property), whereas states like New Jersey and Illinois (after 2022) allow fully remote sign-ups and wagering via mobile apps statewide. Tax rates also vary widely – from Nevada’s 6.75% of revenue to states like New York taking a steep 51% cut of online betting revenue. Despite these differences, the trend toward legalization was unmistakable. By the start of 2023, more than 30 states had legalized sports betting in some form, creating a nationwide marketplace that simply did not exist a few years prior. The Sports Betting Landscape in 2025As of 2025, legal sports betting has become a mainstream feature of American sports culture. In total, the majority of U.S. states – over two-thirds – have authorized sports wagering, whether through commercial sportsbooks, tribal casinos, or state lotteries. More than 35 states now boast operational betting markets, and a few others have passed laws and are preparing to launch. The map stretches from coast to coast: from New York to California (though California itself remains a notable holdout after a failed 2022 ballot measure), from the casinos of New Jersey to the tribal sportsbooks of Washington State. The industry’s growth is reflected in staggering numbers. Americans have legally wagered hundreds of billions of dollars on sports since 2018, generating billions in revenue for sportsbooks and tens of millions in tax receipts for states. Big-name operators have emerged as market leaders. FanDuel and DraftKings, once known just for daily fantasy sports, now run ubiquitous sportsbook apps and together command a substantial share of the market. Traditional casino companies have firmly planted their flags via BetMGM (MGM Resorts’ venture) and Caesars Sportsbook, while newcomer brands continue to appear. Smaller and newer entrants like BetRivers (operated by Rush Street Interactive), Fanatics Sportsbook (launched by the sports merchandise giant), and international imports like Bet365 have joined an increasingly crowded field, seeking a slice of the booming market. Television and media coverage now openly discuss betting odds and point spreads, which were once taboo. Major networks have struck partnerships with sportsbook companies, and in some cities, fans can place a bet at a stadium sportsbook while attending a game. The NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB all have official betting partners, and even the NCAA has eased its stance slightly, permitting events in Las Vegas and allowing athlete name/image/licensing deals with sportsbooks under certain conditions. Regulators and lawmakers remain vigilant about responsible gambling and integrity issues. All legal sportsbooks must use identity verification and geolocation to ensure bettors are of age and within state lines (the federal Wire Act of 1961 still forbids interstate wagers). State gaming boards and lottery commissions oversee compliance, and initiatives to address problem gambling have expanded alongside legalization. So far, match-fixing scandals have been rare in the legal era, and in fact, monitoring by legal operators has helped detect suspicious betting patterns – an outcome leagues now cite as a benefit of regulation. The journey from PASPA to proliferation marks one of the fastest sea-changes in U.S. gambling history. In the span of a decade, sports betting went from a black-market activity in most of the country to a regulated industry advertised on prime-time TV. States that once feared the wrath of sports leagues for even considering a sportsbook now host Super Bowl betting parties and March Madness wagering pools out in the open. While a few states still oppose gambling on moral or religious grounds (Utah, for instance, maintains an outright ban by state law), the overall trend is clear: sports betting is here to stay, with legal markets bringing an activity once done in the shadows into the light of day. As the United States heads into 2025 and beyond, the legacy of the PASPA repeal is evident every Sunday when NFL odds flash on screen and every time a fan taps a phone to place a bet. What was once prohibited is now proliferating – state by state, bet by bet – in a transformed American sports landscape. No question the best sports betting picks are from Joe Duffy of OffshoreInsiders.com |
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Advanced Betting Models: How Pros Use Power Ratings, Simulations & AI to Pick Winners |
| Apr 25th, 2025
Serious sports bettors today increasingly rely on data-driven models to gain an edge. In this article, we explore how professional gamblers use power ratings, computer simulations (like Monte Carlo methods), and AI/machine learningto predict outcomes in the NFL, college football, NBA, college basketball, and MLB. We’ll delve into how power ratings are built and used (with real examples), how simulations model games, how AI models forecast results, and how pros integrate these tools into betting strategies (spreads, totals, props). We’ll also highlight the best free and paid resources and software for building or accessing advanced sports betting models. Power Ratings: Building Team Strength Metrics for BettingPower ratings are the foundation of many professional betting models. A power rating is a numerical representation of a team’s strength, designed to be comparable across all teams so you can predict how Team A would fare against Team B on a neutral field or court (Sports rating system - Wikipedia). In essence, power ratings boil down all relevant factors (scoring ability, defense, efficiency, etc.) into a single number for each team. The difference between two teams’ ratings (plus any home-field advantage adjustment) can be used to project a point spread for their matchup (NFL Week 8 Composite Power Ratings (2024) - BettingPros). How Power Ratings Are Built: Creating accurate power ratings is an art and science. Models vary, but common elements include:
Using Power Ratings in Practice: Once a bettor has power ratings, they can make their own point spreads for any matchup. For example, if Team A has a rating of 28 and Team B is 24, on a neutral field Team A might be favored by ~4 points. If Team A is home, you might add (say) 2.5 for HFA, making it Team A -6.5. A professional bettor will compare this projection to the sportsbook’s actual line. If the sportsbook’s spread is Team A -3, and your ratings imply -6.5, that’s a significant gap. This indicates a potential value bet on Team A because your model suggests they’re stronger than the market believes. In essence, bettors use their ratings to spot discrepancies between their “ratings-implied” point spread and the posted spread (NFL Week 8 Composite Power Ratings (2024) - BettingPros). Real-world examples of power ratings include the Jeff Sagarin ratings (published in USA Today), which for decades have rated teams in NFL, college football, basketball, etc., using a blend of score margin and schedule strength. KenPom’s college basketball ratings rank all Division I teams (363+ teams) using advanced efficiency metrics and have become so influential that they’re even cited in NCAA tournament selection discussions (Sports rating system - Wikipedia). In college football, ESPN’s FPI (Football Power Index) and Connelly’s SP+ each produce power ratings that can project point spreads and win probabilities for every game. The Massey Ratings (by Ken Massey) provide power ratings across dozens of sports and even an aggregate Massey Composite that averages many computer rating systems for college teams. These ratings are valuable because they are objective and data-driven – as Ken Massey noted, computer systems can “objectively track all teams” (e.g. all 351 college basketball teams) without human bias (Sports rating system - Wikipedia). In the NFL and NBA, analysts like FiveThirtyEight use Elo ratings (a type of power rating originally from chess) to rank teams and predict game outcomes. Elo ratings update a team’s rating up or down based on each game’s result (and expected result). For example, FiveThirtyEight’s NFL Elo model updates for win/loss and even adjusts for the quarterback situation, producing a rating for each team that can generate a point spread. Elo and similar systems are simpler than full-blown statistical models but still provide a quick benchmark of team strength. Bottom line: Power ratings distill team strength into a number. Professionals constantly refine these ratings as new games are played. By creating their own power ratings and “setting their own lines,” bettors can identify when the Vegas line is off by a few points (For those that have success betting NFL spreads/ML, do ... - Reddit) – those situations often indicate a profitable betting opportunity. Power ratings are especially crucial in college football and basketball, where the number of teams is huge and schedules don’t overlap much; ratings help quantify the gap between, say, an SEC team and a mid-major team on a neutral field. But even in the NFL, where teams are more balanced, slight rating differences matter in beating the spread. Simulating Games with Monte Carlo MethodsWhile power ratings give a snapshot of team strength, Monte Carlo simulations take it a step further by modeling the actual game outcome distribution. A Monte Carlo simulation means you simulate a game (or season) thousands of timesusing random inputs (based on probabilities drawn from the model) to see all the possible outcomes and their frequencies (How Our NFL Predictions Work | FiveThirtyEight - Politics News). In other words, Monte Carlo methods rely on repeated random sampling to obtain numerical results (Predict NBA Player Lines with Monte Carlo Simulation - Medium), which is ideal for estimating how often a team covers a spread or a total goes over/under. How Simulations Work: To simulate a game, you need a way to generate a realistic outcome given the teams’ strengths. There are various approaches, for example:
Practical Example – Estimating Win and Cover Probabilities: Suppose our model gives Team A a 60% chance to beat Team B, and predicts an average score of 28-24. We can Monte Carlo simulate that game 10,000 times by randomizing the scoring around those averages. The output might tell us that Team A won, say, 6,500 out of 10,000 simulations (implying a 65% win probability) and perhaps covered a -3.5 point spread 57% of the time. In fact, these kinds of metrics are reported by advanced betting analysis. For example, one simulation study found that in 10,000 simulated games of an NFL matchup, the Baltimore Ravens covered a +2.5 point spread 57% of the time and even won outright 51% of the time as an underdog (NFL Divisional Simulated Games & Betting Analysis | by John V ...). This insight is pure gold to a bettor – if you know an underdog has a 57% chance to cover +2.5, that’s a strong bet (implying the true odds of covering are much better than the ~50% odds the sportsbook might be offering at standard juice). Monte Carlo simulations are also used to evaluate totals and props. For totals, you simulate the combined scoring. For example, an NBA bettor might simulate the scoring of a game possession by possession (or using team pace and offensive efficiency stats) to see the distribution of total points. If, say, the simulation shows the game total goes over 220 points in 55% of sims, and the sportsbook’s over/under is 220 (which requires ~52.4% to be profitable at -110 odds), the bettor knows the over has an edge. In prop betting, Monte Carlo can be applied to player stats: for instance, simulate an NBA player’s points by drawing from their distribution of shot attempts and shooting percentages. This was illustrated by a data scientist who used Monte Carlo to predict NBA player stat lines (Predict NBA Player Lines with Monte Carlo Simulation - Medium) – by simulating a player’s performance repeatedly, one can estimate the chances a player gets, say, over 7.5 rebounds or under 15.5 points. Professional bettors integrate simulations to account for variance. A power rating might say Team A is 5 points better than Team B, but the simulation tells you how often Team A wins by 5 or more, vs. the chances Team B keeps it close or wins. This is crucial for risk management and bet sizing. For example, if a model shows an underdog wins outright 20% of the time, a bettor might decide whether the moneyline odds (implied probability) are better or worse than 20%. One high-profile example is the SportsLine Projection Model (a proprietary computer model promoted by CBS Sports). This is essentially a sophisticated simulation model that factors in team stats and “plays” out games 10,000 times. It’s had documented success: by simulating every NFL game 10,000 times, the SportsLine model identified profitable bets and was on a 68% win rate for top-rated NFL picks in 2024 (Week 18, 2025 NFL odds, line, spreads: Proven computer model reveals top NFL parlay picks - SportsLine.com). The model might output something like “Team X covers the spread in 59% of simulations” – indeed, SportsLine often publishes that a certain team is covering in, say, “almost 60% of simulations” for an upcoming game (Week 18, 2025 NFL odds, line, spreads: Proven computer model reveals top NFL parlay picks - SportsLine.com). This Monte Carlo-driven approach helps quantify the confidence in a pick. In sports like college basketball, simulation models are used to forecast the likelihood of upsets in the NCAA Tournament. Bettors often simulate the bracket using power ratings for each matchup (with some randomness) to see which high seeds are most vulnerable or which dark horses could make a deep run – information directly useful for futures bets or betting single games in the tournament. In summary, Monte Carlo simulations add depth to predictions by showing the probability distribution of outcomes, not just a single predicted score. They are invaluable for evaluating betting value: a bettor can compare the simulation-derived probabilities (e.g. 57% chance to cover) to the implied probabilities in betting odds (e.g. -110 spread bet implies ~52.4% break-even). When the model’s probability is higher, that’s a positive expected value bet. AI and Machine Learning Models in Sports PredictionThe rise of AI and machine learning (ML) has given bettors powerful new tools to predict games. Traditional power ratings often rely on human-chosen formulas or linear weighting of factors, whereas machine learning algorithms can learn complex patterns from data automatically. In sports betting, ML models take historical data (scores, statistics, player info, etc.) and train predictive algorithms to output forecasts like win probability, expected point differential, or player performance. Modern AI approaches range from regression models and decision trees to neural networks and ensemble models, all aiming to squeeze out predictive signal from the noise of sports results. How AI/ML Predicts Sports Results: In practice, developing a machine learning model for sports involves several steps:
What AI Models Can Do: A well-trained ML model can output predictions like: “Team A has a 64% chance to win” or “there is a 55% probability the game goes over 220 points” or “Player X will score 18.3 points on average”. These can be directly compared to betting odds. For example, if your model gives a college basketball team a 64% chance to win a game, and the moneyline odds imply only a 50% chance (e.g. +100 even odds), your AI is telling you that team is undervalued – a strong signal to bet them. AI models can also highlight subtle edges: maybe it finds that an NFL team with a strong rush offense facing a weak rush defense gets an extra boost that generic power ratings didn’t fully capture, thus it predicts a bigger win than others expect. Real-World Impact: Many pro betting groups operate like hedge funds, using AI to drive decision-making. One prominent example in the public sphere is again SportsLine’s computer model (often dubbed an AI model in media). It’s essentially a machine learning model that incorporates a multitude of data points and then uses Monte Carlo simulation to produce picks. It has produced a documented track record (e.g., hitting 68% on top NFL picks in 2024) (Week 18, 2025 NFL odds, line, spreads: Proven computer model reveals top NFL parlay picks - SportsLine.com). Another example: the website and analytics group The Power Rank (run by Dr. Ed Feng, who has a Ph.D. in applied math) uses advanced algorithms (Markov chain models, Bayesian inference, etc.) to rank teams and make predictions. Ed Feng’s models have been used to predict March Madness upsets and NFL games, blending data science with sports insight. Academic studies have found that machine learning can predict sports outcomes about as well as (or sometimes better than) traditional methods, largely by eliminating human biases (How accurate are AI predictions for the NFL? - Quora). For instance, an AI model doesn’t get “hyped” by a team’s narrative or reputation; it only knows the data. If the data says a big underdog has a 40% chance in a game, the AI will state that frankly, even if human pundits give the team no shot. This objectivity can help identify contrarian bets that casual bettors (and thus the bookmakers’ lines) might overlook. AI and ML are used across all the focused sports: In the NFL, machine learning models might incorporate detailed play-by-play metrics (like expected points added, success rates, etc.) to forecast games. In college football, ML can help navigate the imbalance between teams – for example, building a model that accounts for how elite teams perform when massive favorites (to decide if laying 35 points has value or not). For NBA, some bettors use ML to forecast player performance for prop bets, using years of player game logs as training data. Others predict game outcomes accounting for schedule effects and even tracking data (speed/distance players run, etc.). In college basketball, where there are hundreds of teams, an AI model might surface a small-conference team that is much better than its record (due to some statistical profile), flagging them as a good bet in early-season games or as a Cinderella in the tournament. And in MLB, which is a data-rich sport, machine learning is heavily used: models digest pitchers’ historical stats, batters’ performance splits, fielding metrics, and even umpire tendencies to predict game outcomes. Baseball bettors also use ML to set daily oddsbecause starting pitcher changes or lineup announcements create quick market moves – an algorithm that rapidly adjusts to such news can find value before the line fully shifts. It’s worth noting that even the oddsmakers employ advanced models. The opening lines for games are often influenced by analytical models not unlike what the best bettors use. The difference is that pro bettors are looking for where they disagree with the line. To beat the market consistently, bettors’ models often have to be more innovative or use different data than what’s already baked into the odds. Integrating Models into Betting StrategiesHaving power ratings or a fancy AI model is only half the battle – the key is applying those predictions to actual bets. Professional gamblers use their models to guide what to bet, when to bet, and how much to bet. Here’s how they integrate these tools into common betting markets:
Crucially, professional bettors also manage bankroll and bet sizing based on model confidence. One common approach is the Kelly Criterion, which calculates optimal bet size proportional to the edge (for instance, bet more when your model shows a 60% win probability on a -110 spread, less when it’s 54%). The integration of models and betting isn’t just “pick team A”; it’s a continuous process: update data → run model → get predicted edge → decide if edge is big enough to bet → execute bet at the best available odds → and later, evaluate results and refine. Additionally, pros will often use multiple models in parallel. One might be a purely statistical model, another might incorporate expert adjustments. If both independent models agree on a bet, confidence is higher. Some bettors form a consensus or ensemble of models (akin to how ensemble methods in ML work) for more robust predictions. It’s also worth noting that once bets are placed, many pros monitor how the market moves relative to their model. If a line moves toward their number, it suggests the market might be catching up (or other sharps bet the same side), which is validating. If a line moves hard against their model, they’ll investigate if new information came in that the model didn’t account for (like an injury announcement). They might even trade positions (hedge or middle bets) if that’s part of their strategy. In essence, the models guide the initial bets, and then experience and savvy guide the ongoing management of those bets. Example: Let’s tie this together with an example scenario – an NFL week. A professional team of bettors on Monday morning: they update their NFL power ratings from Sunday’s results. Team A’s rating goes up 1 point after a strong win, Team B drops 1.5 after an injury to their QB. They plug these into a simulator that also accounts for the next opponent and venue. The model spits out that Team A should be -7 vs Team B on a neutral field; with home field, say it’s -9. But when books open, Team A is only a -6 favorite. Seeing a 3-point difference, the team quickly bets Team A -6 (expecting the line might move towards -9 as others realize the QB injury impact). They also check the total: their simulation of the game (with backup QB for Team B) shows an average total of 42 points, while the book’s over/under is 45. They bet the under 45. For a few player props, their NFL player model predicts Team A’s running back will have a big day (because Team B’s defense is poor and likely trailing, meaning more runs), projecting 120 yards. The rushing yards prop is 85.5 – they hammer the over on that prop. Over the week, if news breaks or lines move to match their model (say the spread moves to -8), they might also decide to buy back a little on the other side or let it ride if they still show value. Come Sunday, they have a portfolio of bets all stemming from those initial power ratings and simulations, integrated with qualitative adjustments. In summary, pros integrate their models by constantly comparing model output vs. betting odds to hunt for edges. A mantra in this field is “Bet with your head, not your heart” – these tools ensure bets are grounded in data and probability. By systematically applying power ratings, simulations, and AI predictions to betting lines, professionals aim to tilt the long-term odds in their favor. Top Resources and Tools for Advanced Betting ModelsBuilding and utilizing these sophisticated models is easier today than ever, thanks to a wealth of resources. Below is a detailed list of some of the best free and paid sites, services, and software platforms that advanced bettors use to access data, power ratings, and build their own predictive models: Free Analytics Sites & Power Ratings
Premium Predictive Analytics & Picks Services
Tools & Software for Building Your Own Models
In the end, the choice of tools depends on each bettor’s skill set and needs. A non-programmer might combine free ratings from KenPom and Sagarin, use TeamRankings for predictions, and BetLabs for trend analysis – and come up with solid bets. A more technical bettor might scrape data daily and retrain a model each week in Python, achieving a small edge that way. Examples of Power Ratings and Models in ActionTo cement these ideas, let’s walk through a few specific examples of power rating systems and models used in the sports mentioned:
Conclusion: In today’s sports betting landscape, knowledge is power – and that knowledge is often encapsulated in power ratings, simulations, and AI models that give bettors a sophisticated read on games beyond what the public sees. By building power ratings that quantify team strength, running Monte Carlo simulations to account for variability, and leveraging machine learning to detect hidden patterns, professional bettors tilt the odds in their favor. They use these tools to set their own lines, find value against the sportsbook’s odds, and manage their betting portfolio with the precision of a stock trader. (For those that have success betting NFL spreads/ML, do ... - Reddit) The resources available – from free rating sites like Massey and KenPom to premium analytics hubs like The Power Rank and advanced tools like BetLabs and Python – mean that even a serious hobbyist can start employing these pro techniques. While no model can guarantee wins (sports will always have upsets and surprise outcomes), the process of using data and analytics systematically gives bettors the best shot at long-term success. As the examples show, whether it’s predicting the Super Bowl winner, the Final Four, or tomorrow’s MLB games, a calculated approach using power ratings, simulations, and AI can turn sports betting from a gamble into more of an investment strategy. By continuously learning and adapting (just like their models do), sharp bettors stay one step ahead of the bookmakers – and that’s the ultimate goal in sports wagering. Sources:
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How Professional Bettors Win During the NBA Playoffs |
| Apr 25th, 2025
The NBA Playoffs present a unique challenge – and opportunity – for sports bettors. Unlike the long grind of the regular season, the playoffs turn each game into a high-stakes chess match. Professional bettors and handicappers thrive in this environment by staying disciplined, data-driven, and opportunistic. They understand the nuances of playoff basketball and deploy strategies for sides, totals, props, series bets, futures, and even live betting that give them an edge. In this comprehensive guide, we’ll explain how savvy bettors approach the NBA postseason. We’ll cover why playoff basketball is different from the regular season, the key factors pros consider when handicapping games, how to interpret line movements in the betting market, and specific tactics for betting sides and totals (with concepts like early-series Unders and the zig-zag theory). We’ll also delve into strategies for player props, series prices, futures, and in-game betting, and highlight common mistakes recreational bettors make during the playoffs. Playoffs vs Regular Season: Key Differences for BettorsPlayoff basketball isn’t just “more regular season.” It’s a different animal entirely, and professional bettors adjust their models and strategies accordingly. Some crucial differences include:
In short, professional bettors recognize that the playoffs offer a more stable, data-rich and intense environment to analyze. Teams give maximum effort and coaches micromanage matchups, which in some ways makes the games more predictable (fewer random let-down spots). As one analyst noted, with tighter rotations and high-effort minutes from stars, the playoffs can actually be one of the best times for a skilled bettor to find an edge because there’s less guesswork about motivation and lineups (NBA Player Prop Bets: NBA Playoff Betting Strategy & EV Results). Key Factors Pros Weigh in Playoff HandicappingBeyond the broad differences above, experienced bettors dive into specific factors when handicapping each playoff game or series. A data-driven handicapper will incorporate many of the following elements into their analysis:
In practice, a professional handicapper builds a full picture of each game: the statistical profile (pace, offensive/defensive ratings, shooting percentages), the situational angles (revenge spots, elimination pressure), the health and fatigue status, the X’s and O’s matchups, and even intangible factors like experience or coaching. They then compare this assessment to the betting line. If their analysis suggests Team A should be -8 but the market has -6, that might be a value side bet. Or if they project a slower tempo than sportsbooks expect, they’ll hit the Under. This exhaustive approach – leaving no stone unturned – is what gives pros an edge over casual bettors who might only consider one or two factors. Interpreting Line Movements and Market MovesOne hallmark of professional bettors is their keen awareness of the betting market itself. It’s not just about handicapping teams – it’s also about reading how the odds move and understanding why. During the NBA playoffs, where betting volume is huge, line movements can be very telling. Here’s how pros interpret and react to market moves:
In practice, a professional bettor during playoffs will often have a live odds screen up, watching lines and perhaps even betting into early numbers (before the public) to secure the best line. They might bet openers based on their power ratings, then later in the day consider additional bets if the line moves and creates a new edge (or to cut risk). They also have the patience to pass on a bet if the number moved past their target. For example, if they wanted Under 216 and it’s now 213, they won’t chase a worse line – they’ll wait for possibly a live-bet opportunity or just accept that the value is gone. This patience and timing – knowing when to bet as much as what to bet – is a key part of their success. Real-World Example: Suppose the total in a playoff game between two strong defensive teams opens at 205. Sharps might have projected the “true” total at 200, so they immediately hammer the Under 205. The line might plummet to 201 by the next morning (sharp action causing a big move). At 201, the value on the Under is much smaller. Now casual bettors, seeing a low total, might start thinking “surely these teams can score 201” and bet the Over, or they simply bet Over because life’s too short to bet Under. If public money pushes it back to 202 or 203 by game time, some sharps could even come back and bet the Under again at the slightly higher number. If no buyback comes and the line stays around 201, pros who missed the 205 might just sit it out or look for a live angle (like if there’s a quick 10-8 start in the first few minutes, maybe live Under at 207 becomes available briefly). The key lesson: Understanding line movement helps pros avoid traps and seize opportunities. By reading the market, they can tell which side the smart money is on, when a line has value, and how to get the best price for their opinion. Spread Betting Strategies: Sides in the PlayoffsBetting “sides” (point spreads or moneylines) in the NBA playoffs is the bread-and-butter of many professionals. The goal is to find which team, at the given odds, has value to outperform expectations. Here are the main strategies and angles pros use for sides:
To summarize side-betting strategies: pros blend situational angles (zig-zag, desperation, fatigue) with fundamental matchup handicapping and an eye on line value. They might say: “I like Team X to bounce back (zig-zag), and they also figured out a defensive adjustment that should work better now (matchup edge). The market hasn’t fully adjusted – I only have to lay -3, which has value. I’ll bet Team X.” If that same scenario had Team X -6 (no value because everyone expects the bounce-back), the pro might abstain or even consider the other side if there are signs the market overcorrected. In playoff series, each game is its own episode and part of a larger story. Professional bettors keep the big picture in mind (series flow) while betting the individual games. They might also project ahead – e.g., if they think Team Y will likely lose Game 3 but they like them in the series overall, they may wait to bet Team Y’s series price at a better number after that anticipated loss (essentially sacrificing one game to get a better future price). This kind of foresight is part of being opportunistic with sides and series bets, which we’ll discuss more below. Totals (Over/Under) Betting Strategies in the PlayoffsBetting totals (the Over/Under on combined points) in the NBA playoffs is another area where professionals find edges. Playoff totals can be quite different from regular season due to changes in pace, defense, and coaching style. Here’s how the pros approach betting on playoff overs and unders:
Example of a Totals Adjustment: In the 2022 playoffs, suppose the Boston Celtics and Brooklyn Nets (just a hypothetical) had an opening total of 224 in Game 1, but it turned into a defensive slugfest that totaled only 200 points. In Game 2, sportsbooks might react by posting maybe 218. Sharps who think Game 1 was an outlier (cold shooting, early jitters) might actually bet Over 218 if they expect a correction upwards offensively. On the other hand, if they believe the defense was for real and perhaps 224 was way off, they might still go Under 218, seeing continued value. The key for pros is to not anchor to pre-playoffs numbers – once they see matchup evidence in Game 1, they will update their projections for Game 2’s total accordingly, often faster than the general betting public.
In summary, professional bettors in the playoffs often have a bias toward Unders, given the trends of slower, defense-first games (How to Bet the NBA and NHL Playoffs Like A Sharp | betstamp). But they aren’t blindly under every game – they pinpoint which games and series justify it and at what numbers. They also exploit that tendency via derivative bets (like 1st half unders, team total unders, etc., when appropriate). When they do bet Overs, it’s usually because the number has come down too much or a particular matchup is just an offensive fireworks type (which is rarer but does happen). They continually compare the posted total to their expectation of pace and efficiency. If they see an edge (say they project 206 points and the total is 212), they’ll bet it confident that, over time, those edges yield profit. Player Props in the Postseason: A Professional ApproachPlayer prop betting – wagering on individual player statistics like points, rebounds, assists, etc. – has exploded in popularity. In the playoffs, prop markets become very intriguing because rotations tighten and player roles can shift from series to series. Professionals who specialize in props use the playoffs as a playground for finding mispriced lines, because sportsbooks have to quickly adjust to evolving circumstances. Here’s how the pros approach player props during the postseason:
In essence, professional prop bettors treat the playoff like a constantly evolving market for each player. They look for when a player’s usage or efficiency will change and jump on bets before sportsbooks adjust. As one sharp guide suggests: the prop market can lag behind reality in a rapidly changing playoff series (How to Bet the NBA and NHL Playoffs Like A Sharp | betstamp). The advantage goes to the bettor who is watching closely and thinking a step ahead. For example, if a team’s second-leading scorer twisted an ankle and is less effective, books might not immediately lower his point prop enough – a sharp will hit the Under early. Or if a coach hints he’ll start a small-ball lineup next game, a sharp might project the starting center’s minutes to drop and take his under on rebounds. One more note: Bankroll management on props is key. Props often have lower limits, but pros diversify across many props if they see edges. They might have a portfolio of 5-10 prop bets in a single game, each with a small edge. Those add up. It’s a very data-driven approach: some use predictive models for player stats based on matchup inputs. The mindset is opportunistic – each mispriced prop is an opportunity to exploit. Futures and Series Bets: Finding Value Over the Long HaulBeyond individual games and player performances, professionals also attack futures and series markets during the playoffs. These are bets on outcomes like “Who will win this series?” or “Who will win the NBA Championship?” and other long-term propositions. The mindset here is a bit different from single-game betting – it’s about value and probability over a series or the entire playoff bracket. Here’s how pros approach it:
In summary, pros approach futures and series betting as an extension of their game-level handicapping but with an eye toward probabilities and value over multiple games. They capitalize on mispriced perceptions (e.g., the public thinking a series is over when it isn’t, or underrating a dark horse team’s chances). They also leverage the ability to adjust positions as new information comes in (game results, injuries, etc.). A casual bettor might put in a bracket and just hope, but a pro treats it dynamically: each round is an opportunity to either press a correct call or pivot if needed. One more thing: Bankroll on futures is typically kept reasonable. You don’t want to tie up too much money in longshots or series bets such that you can’t bet individual games (where edges might be bigger). Pros balance it – maybe a few units spread across futures, while still firing on nightly lines. Live (In-Game) Betting Tips for the PlayoffsLive betting (placing wagers during the game) is a growing frontier, and many professionals love it because it allows them to see how the game is unfolding and potentially get better numbers than pre-game. In playoff games, where intensity and coaching adjustments are evident as you watch, live betting can be very fruitful. Here’s how experienced gamblers approach in-game wagering during the NBA playoffs:
Live betting is a skill that comes with experience. The professionals treat it almost like day trading: use real-time information to beat the slower-reacting parts of the market. In a playoff context, because so many are watching the games, lines can be sharp live too – but the human element and small sample noise means there are definitely edges. The key is to be prepared and stay calm. As one guide suggests, never bet just because you’re caught up in the excitement; use those breaks to think clearly and execute your plan (Best NBA Live Betting Strategies - Oddstrader Blog). A pro might have no live bets in a given game if nothing advantageous appears. Or they might have several if the game is wild and the lines overshoot. It’s about opportunism: being ready to strike when the odds diverge from where you believe they should be. Common Playoff Betting Mistakes to AvoidEven with great strategies and analysis, bettors can undercut themselves with poor habits or mistakes. Professionals are very conscious of avoiding these pitfalls, and recreational bettors can learn from them. Here are some of the most common mistakes made during the playoffs – and how pros steer clear of them:
Overloading Parlays or Big Exotic Bets: Because so many games are on and many bet types available, casual bettors might throw in lots of parlays (e.g., parlaying sides and totals for bigger payout) or longshot bets like guessing exact series results for fun. While a small parlay for entertainment is fine, relying on them is a mistake – parlays carry higher house edge and are hard to hit consistently. Pros, if they parlay, usually do correlated plays or very specific things when they see an edge (like first half/ full game type correlations). But in general, they bet more straight wagers. The mistake is treating playoffs like a lottery ticket opportunity (big parlays) rather than an investment. The steady approach might seem less thrilling but it’s what wins long term.
In essence, bet like a professional: strategic, patient, and methodical. If you can pair this mindset with the knowledge and strategies outlined earlier, you’ll greatly improve your chances of success during the NBA playoffs. The NBA Playoffs are a thrilling time for basketball fans and bettors alike. Emotions run high, but the bettors who consistently profit approach the postseason with a cool, analytic mindset. They recognize the differences in playoff basketball, carefully weigh key factors, interpret the market’s signals, and deploy well-thought-out strategies on sides, totals, props, and more. They seize opportunities (a mispriced line, an overreaction, a favorable matchup) and avoid the traps that many fall into. By studying the tactics above – from the zig-zag theory on sides to focusing on unders in the right spots, from prop analysis to live betting savvy – you can start to think like a professional handicapper. Combine that knowledge with strong discipline and bankroll management, and you’ll be well on your way to playoff betting success. Remember, it’s about making smart, value-driven bets, not just picking winners. Even the best bettors don’t win every bet; they win a solid percentage and keep their losses in control. So as you wager this NBA postseason, emulate the pros: be confident in your analysis, strategic in your choices, and above all data-driven rather than emotion-driven. Good luck and enjoy the games! Sources:
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By avoiding these common errors (NFL Betting Strategies: Professional Handicapping for ATS and Totals |
| Apr 25th, 2025
NFL betting professionals approach the game differently than casual bettors. They rely on data-driven analysis, disciplined bankroll management, and a keen understanding of betting markets. This article breaks down the top strategies used by sharp bettors for full-game point spreads (ATS) and totals (over/unders), including analytical handicapping techniques, bankroll and bet sizing advice, market timing, power ratings, and common pitfalls to avoid. The goal is to provide actionable insights with the mindset of a professional sports bettor. Data-Driven Handicapping: Advanced Stats & Situational AnalysisA successful NFL handicapper bases decisions on analysis and research rather than gut feel. Pro bettors dig into advanced metrics and contextual factors to get an edge. No single statistic wins on its own, but a combination can paint a clearer picture of a matchup (Examining Advanced NFL Stats — DVOA, EPA, CPOE, aDOT & More) (Statistics for NFL Picks: Smarter Choices | Blog - Splash). Leveraging Advanced Metrics (DVOA, EPA, Success Rate, etc.)Modern NFL analytics offer deeper metrics that go beyond basic stats like yards or points. Sharp bettors incorporate these to evaluate team strength and efficiency:
By combining these advanced metrics with traditional stats, professional bettors form a more complete view. For instance, a team might rank highly in total yards (traditional stat) but poorly in DVOA and success rate (advanced stats), indicating those yards may be empty and not translating into efficient scoring (Statistics for NFL Picks: Smarter Choices | Blog - Splash). The mantra is: “use multiple metrics and trust the consensus of evidence” rather than any single number. Situational Factors: Rest, Travel, and WeatherBeyond the stats, context matters. NFL scheduling and conditions can significantly affect team performance, and sharps account for these in their handicapping:
Injury Reports and Player AvailabilityInjuries are a critical factor every week in the NFL. Successful bettors closely monitor injury reports (typically released throughout the week and finalized on Friday for Sunday games) and adjust their handicapping for key absences:
In summary, professional handicapping means doing your homework on every aspect of the game: from granular efficiency stats to macro situational edges. By grounding their ATS and totals bets in data and context, sharps ensure they’re making informed, value-driven wagers rather than hopeful shots in the dark. Bankroll Management and Bet SizingEven the best handicapping insights mean little if you don’t manage your money wisely. Bankroll management is the foundation of long-term success in sports betting. Pros treat their betting bankroll like an investment fund – preserving capital and sizing bets to ride out the natural ups and downs (variance) of betting.
In practice: a professional might allocate 1 unit per NFL side/total they see value in, occasionally 1.5 or 2 units if they have a significantly larger edge. They might also pass on a Sunday entirely if they don’t see value, rather than force bets. This patience and selectivity is a form of bankroll protection too. By protecting the bankroll first, sharps ensure they’re around to capitalize when great opportunities arise. Betting Markets: Line Shopping, Sharp vs. Square Action, and TimingEven with great handicapping and bankroll discipline, you can still improve your bottom line by being savvy in the betting marketplace. This means obtaining the best possible odds (line shopping), understanding how sharp money influences the market, and timing your bets to maximize value. Line Shopping – Always Get the Best NumberOne hallmark of a professional bettor is that they never settle for one book’s line if a better number is available elsewhere. Sportsbooks can differ on point spreads and totals (or the attached odds on those bets), so having accounts at multiple books allows you to shop for the most favorable line. Over a season, half a point here or +5 cents there makes a big difference to your profits. Remember, if you’re trying to beat ~52.4% (the break-even win rate at -110 odds), every bit of edge counts.
Sharp vs. Square: Understanding the Market MoversThe betting market is driven by two broad forces: sharp (professional) money and square (public) money. Knowing how each influences lines can help you position your bets wisely.
Beating the Closing Line and Key NumbersClosing Line Value (CLV) is a concept sharps live by. The “closing line” (the final consensus odds before kickoff) is the most efficient price – if you consistently bet at better odds than the closing line, you’re likely making +EV (positive expected value) bets. For instance, if you bet Under 48 and it closes Under 46, you beat the closing total by 2 points (a great CLV). Over the long run, getting good CLV correlates with winning. So timing and shopping are all geared toward one goal: locking in bets at superior numbers. One element of this is understanding key numbers in NFL scoring. Key numbers are the most common victory margins (due to how points are scored in football). In spreads, 3 and 7 are by far the most important key numbers (games end on a 3-point margin or 7-point margin very frequently). Others like 6, 4, 10, and 14 are secondary key numbers. For totals, key numbers are less critical but common totals like 41, 44, 51 can matter a bit. Why does this matter? Because a half-point around a key number is huge value. Sharp bettors will pay extra or maneuver to get on the right side of 3 or 7. For example, a 3.5-point underdog is much more attractive than +3.0, since that hook (“half”) covers you if they lose by exactly 3 (a very common outcome) (12 NFL Handicapping Betting Tips from Expert Pro Football Handicappers 2024 Edition - Doc's Sports). One pro tip is “always buy the hook on 3.5, 7.5, etc., to get down to the key number if it’s not too pricey” (12 NFL Handicapping Betting Tips from Expert Pro Football Handicappers 2024 Edition - Doc's Sports). Not all sharps agree with buying points (sometimes the premium isn’t worth it), but all agree that getting on/off key numbers is crucial. If you like a favorite at -2.5, don’t wait until it hits -3.5 – you’ve crossed the most important number. Similarly, if you miss +3 on a dog and it’s +2.5 now, you’ve lost significant value; you might pass the bet or reduce stake. Always be aware of the key number when placing a bet – pros will often even anticipate moves and grab a key number the moment it’s available. In practice, sharps treat betting as betting into numbers, not teams. As one veteran said, “remember that you’re not betting teams, you’re betting the line” (12 NFL Handicapping Betting Tips from Expert Pro Football Handicappers 2024 Edition - Doc's Sports). If the value is gone (say you liked Over 45 but it’s now Over 47.5 after weather turned out sunny), a disciplined bettor lays off. They don’t force a play at a bad number. And if they do bet at a number, they’ll often re-evaluate if the line moves through a key figure against them – e.g. if they bet -6.5 and it moves to -7.5 (they got closing line value, good) vs. if it moves to -5.5 (they might have been on wrong side of move). To sum up, acting like a pro in the market means: shop aggressively for the best line, understand which way the line is likely to move (and why), and be willing to pull the trigger or wait based on that, all while respecting key numbers.Getting the best of the number is half the battle in beating NFL spreads and totals. Power Ratings and Modeling GamesTo handicap effectively, many professional bettors create their own power ratings and predictive models for NFL teams. This quantitative approach helps them set their own point spreads and totals for each game, then compare against the sportsbook lines to identify bets with value. Developing solid power ratings and models is a bit of an art and science, but it’s a core practice of “wiseguys.” Developing Power RatingsPower ratings are numerical values assigned to teams that represent their strength on a neutral field. The difference between two teams’ ratings can be used to calculate an expected point spread. Pros either develop these from scratch or refine publicly available ones. Here’s how they do it:
Ultimately, a power rating system yields a point spread for any matchup. If your ratings say Team A = 5 (points above avg), Team B = -2 (below avg), the difference is 7; on a neutral field Team A -7 would be your line. If the actual Vegas line is -4, you see a significant discrepancy – that might indicate a value bet on Team A, unless there’s some matchup or injury factor your pure ratings didn’t capture. Many pros live by these discrepancies: if their number differs from the book’s by a threshold (say 2+ points), they’ll fire a bet. If it’s closer, they pass. Modeling Totals and Game OutcomesBeyond power ratings, professionals often build predictive models to project scores or probabilities. These can range from simple Excel models to complex machine learning algorithms. Key elements of modeling NFL games include:
One benefit of modeling is it forces you to quantify everything. Instead of vaguely saying “I think Team X will do well,” you plug in numbers and get a concrete prediction (e.g. Team X 27, Team Y 20). If the total is 46.5, your model says 47, that’s very close – probably no bet. But if your model says 51, you have over 46.5 as a potential bet (provided you trust the inputs). Good models also produce predicted probability of covering or going over/under, which can inform how much edge you have (e.g. your model might say the under hits 55% of the time, which is a solid edge against the 52.4% breakeven). Finally, pros constantly refine their models. They back-test how their predictions did, and adjust the weight on certain stats or add new factors if needed. The NFL is an evolving league (for instance, scoring might trend up or down in different seasons, or rule changes affect things), so models can’t be static. A professional bettor often has a background in data or knows someone who helps with the technical heavy lifting, but even a simple model built in a spreadsheet can greatly improve one’s betting results by removing bias and focusing on measurable advantages. Common Mistakes and Red Flags for Recreational BettorsIt’s instructive to look at what not to do. Many losses by casual bettors are due to avoidable mistakes. Professionals guard against these errors, and if you want to bet like a pro, you should too. Here are some common pitfalls and red flags:
In short, avoid the behaviors on the “square” side of the ledger. A concise contrast often cited is: Sharps are calculated, patient, and value-driven; Squares bet on impulse, chase hype, and ignore price (isfa.com) (isfa.com). By steering clear of those traps – doing your homework, managing your money, seeking value, and keeping emotions in check – you put yourself in the mindset of a professional bettor. ConclusionBecoming a successful NFL bettor isn’t easy – as many experts acknowledge, the NFL market is “extremely efficient” and tough to beat (12 NFL Handicapping Betting Tips from Expert Pro Football Handicappers 2024 Edition - Doc's Sports). But by adopting the approaches above, you give yourself a fighting chance to profit like the pros. Focus on data-driven analysis, whether through advanced metrics or your own models, rather than narratives or hype. Be relentlessly disciplined with your bankroll and bet sizing, treating betting as a long-term endeavor. Exploit the betting market dynamics by shopping for the best lines and timing your wagers to maximize value. Continuously refine your power ratings and understanding of each team, so you can spot when a point spread or total is off. And perhaps most importantly, avoid the common mistakes that trap recreational bettors in mediocrity or worse. Professional sports bettors think in terms of probabilities and investment, not guarantees or gambles. They embrace the grind – finding small edges and letting those accumulate over hundreds of bets. They accept losses calmly and win with humility, always looking forward to the next edge. By following the strategies in this guide and maintaining the mentality of a sharp, you can elevate your NFL handicapping. There are no certainties in football, but with the right approach, you’ll consistently make smarter bets and put the odds on your side – which is exactly where a professional wants to be (isfa.com) (12 NFL Handicapping Betting Tips from Expert Pro Football Handicappers 2024 Edition - Doc's Sports). Good luck and happy betting! Sources: Data and concepts referenced from advanced NFL analytics (Football Outsiders, PFF) (Examining Advanced NFL Stats — DVOA, EPA, CPOE, aDOT & More) (Betting 101: Explaining Commonly Cited Metrics and Factors in our Handicapping), betting industry analysis (NFL Betting and Weather — How Weather Affects NFL Scoring) (Should You Really Bet NFL Favorites Early and Underdogs Late? | Sports Insights), and expert insights from professional handicappers (isfa.com) (12 NFL Handicapping Betting Tips from Expert Pro Football Handicappers 2024 Edition - Doc's Sports). These illustrate the evidence-based strategies and cautionary tales shared by long-term winners in NFL betting. |
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Sharps Know the Difference Between Ratings, Rankings, Raw Numbers; Squares Do Not |
| Jan 3rd, 2023 The disparity is even more explicit in college sports, but it is colossal in professional sports handicapping as well. Rankings are just that, teams are ranked in specific categories first to last. Ratings have teams “rated” in various categories comparative to a mean number. For example, let’s say Clemson is playing Maryland in football. This is explained in more detail in the Gospel eBook of sports betting. Clemson runs for 252.4 (raw numer) yards per game to rank (rankings of course) No. 7 in the country. Maryland as an illustration averages 239.8 to rank 18th. According to those “rankings” and “raw numbers” Clemson has a better rushing offense. However rankings and raw numbers don’t scratch the surface. Conversely a rating would say the cumulative average of Clemson’s previous opponents’ defense allows 232.2 rushing yards per game. That would mean Clemson rushes for 20.2 more yards per game than their opponents normally allow (+20.2). If Maryland’s cumulative foes allow only 197.8 that would put them at (+40.2). The inferior raw numbers make it look like Clemson is the better run offense by 12.6, but in the much more telling ratings, it’s actually Maryland by 20 yards per game. So again, using the hypotheticals, here is a comparison (all illustrative rushing totals). The “advantage” numbers are ALL CAPS: Raw numbers: CLEMSON 252.4; Maryland 239.8 Rankings: CLEMSON No. 7; Maryland No. 18 Ratings: Clemson +20.2; MARYLAND +40.2 Furthermore rating both offenses and defenses is most accurate using yards per play, yards per pass and yards per rush. These are much more telling as to whether teams outplay or underplay their stats. In short, games in which the proverbial “they have dominated them everywhere but on the scoreboard” are priceless to the handicapper.
This is true in no small part do to the fact that half court teams will have lower scoring games than up-tempo. This is in no way to imply that ratings under this circumstance are flawless. Slow down teams will both get fewer easy baskets and give up fewer, but in also weighing points per game, the flaws of each statistic can cancel out some of the deficiencies of the other. In short, pro betting picks ratings put raw numbers into perspective much more so than rankings. By no means whatsoever do we disregard rankings, but the square player is shockingly oblivious to the value of the more judicious numbers. Yet again we must emphasize mere statistics are only part of the equation. But only a small percentage of handicappers are acute enough to use more precise ratings rather than the not to be trusted rankings. Everything though we said about the strength and weaknesses of power ratings applies here. The learned player must make adjustments for injuries both for a team and that of their previous opponents. Statistics can be used and statistics can be abused. But knowing the right valuations to use is just as important as knowing how to adapt them. |
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The more deceptive a won/loss record is, the more opportunity.
Team stats in those categories are a much greater precursor of future performance than points per game.
Maybe Maryland runs the ball 16 more times per game than Clemson. Yards per rush puts the raw numbers into better perspective, but yards per rush relative to the cumulative average of their opponents makes the stats rise to the level of truthful for handicapping excellence.
In basketball, shooting percentages offensively and defensively are more accurate than points per game.How to Bet College Football Bowls; Betting Myths Destroyed |
| Dec 9th, 2022 Every sport has a massive gap between the sharps and squares. That’s why there are sportsbooks thriving worldwide. If there was a betting sports minus clods wagering, bookies would stop accepting plays on it. One could reasonably assert bowl betting unveils the most substantial chasm. Most of the fairytales have extractions in the urban legend of weighing recent games significantly more than the full season ledger. Perhaps the subliminal or possibly premeditated conviction is that the long layoff makes September and October results appear to be an eternity ago. Cold-hard facts, we sharps would say validated by logic, state that layoffs neutralize momentum. There is no such thing as “recent play” if a team hasn’t competed for two, three weeks or more. Long rest gives teams openings to fine-tune and all but eliminates momentum or slumps. Here are winning systems and theories for bowl betting, generally the opposite of the schleps beliefs. Fade teams off consecutive games in which they allowed less than 12 points combined is 11-1 since 2001 There are countless explanations why a defense would peak late in the season. Depth is a headliner as teams will wear down. Being blessed with a ball-control offense that keeps them off the field in another. Either way, less rested squads profit from time off. Teams with worse ATS margins are 81-39-2 against teams with at least a three-game spread winning streak as long as they also are not on said win streak Spread margin, sometimes called “sweat barometer” is the same as points per game margin, but it is relative to the pointspread. For example, if a seven-point favorite wins by 10, their spread margin is +3. They covered by three points. If they win SU by only a point, their spread margin is -6 and if they lost outright by a field goal, their ATS margin is -10. Joeybagofdonuts sees a team that’s been a superior bet and a hot one at that. Of course, JoeyBags is going to wager on said team. That is the essence of being overestimated. All teams on at least three game winning streaks are go-against of 131-92-2 against teams not on a streak as long Common theme: red-hot teams don’t desire a rest. It is thrust upon them and thwarts their recent form. Teams that do not have a winning record are 86-71 versus opponent with a winning record I won’t even voice his real name to protect the guilty, but one of the first guys I met in this industry was back in 1986. A journeyman peddler who went by aliases such Chris Jordan and OC Dooley, he quietly faded into retirement. To put it mildly, he was a walking cliché wrapped inside a fabrication. He would love to scream from the mountain tops that he loved to bet against teams “that did not deserve to be there.” A .500 team was target of his handicapping ire. The problem is the truculent tout was an auto-fade. Teams that do not have a winning record are 86-71 versus opponent with a winning record. Of course .500 will not lack motivation to prove their worth. Part of the reason that number is not as impressive as some of our other myth-busters is that one of his favorite regurgitations reversed course—after his retirement. It is 1-8 the last nine or Dooley’s theory is 8-1 recently after a 63-85 start. Teams that scored at least 125 points last three games go under 78-60-1 Wait, a team is in an offensive groove. How can one not bet the over screams the neophyte as he heads to the window to bet $25 on his can’t-miss bet. Offenses especially rely on being in a rhythm, so a break can affect them even more than a defense. Plus opposing defensive coordinators have plenty of time to derive a gameplan. Teams with bad margins of cover, AKA sweat barometers, against quality teams based on margin are 169-113-6 Somewhat overlaps with an above theory, but with everything revealed about overreaction and perception, is it any shock bad spread teams are a good bet to quality spread teams? Conclusion: Did you ever take a debate class in high school or college? Students debate one side, then often the next day, take on the opposite resolution. That’s the way it is with many of the “intangibles” handicappers. But with advanced analytics, numbers are objective. By no means do they tell the whole story, but they are free of the bias of the handicapper. Which is why betting against the public is profitable. Bowl your man over with logic, not groupthink. Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy has been a pro capper since 1988 on the scorephones and in the industry since 1986 with famed Dial Sports scorephones. His bests are exclusively at OffshoreInsiders.com
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Duffy Full Season Package Up |
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| Aug 22nd, 2022 Joe Duffy has been winning longer than anyone in the history of the business. Check out his full-season football packages.
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Worst Bad Beats in Betting History From a Pro Gambler |
| Aug 18th, 2022 Essential to my handicapping prosperity has been zigging while many gamblers are zagging. However, in this essay, I will hop on the bandwagon in chattering about bad beats. Consistent with not being part of the echo chamber, I do differentiate between “bad beats” and heartbreaking losses, though they are far from mutually exclusive. My top two criterion for true bad beats:
The 2014 Bahamas Bowl is widely deemed one of the ugliest if not the No. 1 bad beat of all-time. Central Michigan outscored Western Kentucky a breath-taking 34-0 in the fourth quarter, then missed on a two-point conversion to lose by one, getting 3.5 points. Soul-crushing if you were on the downside of the miracle, but because every point mattered in the straight-up outcome, I can’t regard it a top 5 bad beat, though certainly a stunner for the ages. Also, it was nationally televised, and the only game played that day. Higher-profile games will always be more memorable and bias people. In the name of full disclosure, of course I recall that game very well and may be partial. It was my all-time miracle cover, though probably not topping “good/bad beat” catalog for reasons nuanced above. But the overwhelming part for me individually is that it occured in the midst of one of my worst declines and bad beat runs ever. In fact, it concluded it. It’s crazy how being on the right side of such truly turns the worm. https://twitter.com/offshoreinsider/status/549368302586572800 Christmas continues to be my favorite holiday and my eldest child was born Christmas Eve. So December 24 (when said game was played) is a joyous time for me. As we were celebrating his birthday at my son’s favorite restaurant, I observed the score-in-progress on my phone and concluded it was clear my almost unheard-of rough patch would endure. We ventured home and I seized a much-needed mental nap. Several hours later upon waking, I checked my computer and swore I was still asleep and dreaming...or awake and hallucinating. I went to probably 4-5 sites at least before I trusted the score. Yep MyBookie posted it as a winner in my account. In fact, I went to the little boys room, cleared out some cobwebs, reassured myself I was awake and corroborated the final tally one last time. What a great Christmas gift. If I were on the other side, granted I may not have yet recovered, but for perhaps semantical reasons, some lower profile games were worse beats. As you are about to observe, I can’t recollect every detail or even the exact teams of my most terrible bad beats. But they were lower-profile games. I long to have the photographic memory of respected capper Jeff Nadu for this assignment. Twice in 2019, I lost unders that went into overtime more than 25 points below the total. Coastal Carolina and Georgia Southern had a posted total of 45 on Oct. 19. No problem, they are tied at 10 at the end of regulation. Oh a mere 37 points in overtime kills me. I cannot immediately recall the other one, but all but certain, we went into extra period more than 30 points below the total. And lost. Sunday, June 13, 2004, I made one of my biggest bets ever. It was my IL Total of the Year. Overwhelming evidence all pointed towards the New York Yankees-San Diego UNDER 10.5. What a call. Or so I thought. San Diego leads 2-0, two outs, bottom 9, nobody on. And then all hell broke loose. Of course Yankees tie and send to extra innings. Then the teams combined for seven runs in the 12thas the Bronx Bombers put it over the total with two outs to end it! https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYA/NYA200406130.shtml The reason I suck on my bar trivia team is because I battle to recall meticulous particulars, even teams involved. Despite my research acumen, only recalling conferences, not opponents robs me from presenting easily quantifiable nominations. But premise and basic essentials of these are accurate if not slightly imprecise. Circa 1990, pretty certain it was a Colonial Athletic Conference game on Sports Channel America. Though I don’t swear it was Navy-George Mason, I did unearth that in the ’90-‘91 season Mason beat them 85-79 at a bad Navy team. I could not uncover an archived synopsis nor odds, but it may be said game. Or maybe not. But the gist is accurate. I had the underdog +5.5 and they are winning outright by one. Favorite has last possession and gets back into front court and calls timeout with seconds remaining. The only realistic scenario I get screwed is if chalk gets fouled, makes 1-of-2 and the game continues into overtime. But then the impossible took place. Chalk makes a three-pointer to go up by two. Underdog calls a timeout...but they had none. I believe the dead ball technical meant two-shots, plus loss of possession. Yep, chalk hits two free throws. They inbound, get fouled and convert two more free throws. Presuming I did not fumble a detail, I am pretty certain it was seven-points in seconds to cover by a half. A great beat I had, was possibly the first year of overtime rules in college football, 1995. Either way, mid-to-late 90s. I had the favorite laying about 9.5 in what I am all-but-certain was a late-night Pac-12 game. My team got a touchdown in overtime, but of course their opponent got possession at the “bottom” of overtime. My chalk ends it with a defensive TD to win by 13 in overtime. If those with more unerring memories can help me fill in the blanks, please let me know! High-profile games are clearly easier to recall. But after well-over 50,000 bets in my lifetime, I assure you the obscure ones bring every bit as much suffering or sometimes ecstasy. The legendary Maya Angelou said, “I've learned that people will forget what you said, people will forget what you did, but people will never forget how you made them feel.” Essentially that theory applies in gambling, but not always in a positive way. I’ve learned I will forget the exact opponents, I will forget the precise details, but I will never forget how those bad beats made me feel. Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com and widely accepted as the best capper in sports gambling history.
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The More Things Stay the Same, The More Things Change |
| Jul 25th, 2022 Streamlining, when employed properly, is of course effective in every line of work. In the 1970s and 80s, a lot of gamblers would focus on local teams and conferences where regional information was often more accurate and punctual than what Vegas could acquire. The Internet and the Information Age, to say the least changed that. By no means did progress eliminate streamlining, it changed the focal point. At one juncture, many moons ago, one of the most influential persons in moving a line was professional handicapper Doc Sports in the Big 10. His plays could move the line five, six points,” says Steve Linden, one of the high rolling founders MasterLockLine, the online betting syndicate. Times changed and team or conference experts were no longer based on “location, location, location” but on the ability to adapt and expose which teams were the flavor of the moment to go with or against. Focusing on a specific team now involves ascertaining undervalued and overvalued squads and riding them until oddsmakers caught up. Forensic handicapper Stevie Vincent says teams that inevitably become streaky spread wise are squads that have a high winning percentage but don’t blow teams out or losing teams that don’t get blown out often. Mike Godsey, still an advisor to Joe Duffy’s Picks says he agrees, it is part of his “dichotomous ATS and SU” theory. ”We discount 98 percent of trends, but this has proven to be the exception to the rule. Basically, if a team has a great SU record but horrid ATS record or vice versa, you ride for that to continue as it is the sign of which teams are most under or overvalued.” Linden says of the professional handicappers they monitor, unlike last century, there are fewer who simply excel by focusing on a specific team or conference, but instead they do notice, “The elite services do consistently go for or against the same teams for extended periods.” With college basketball just around the corner, the number of teams undistinguished to the masses, but crystal clear to the sharpies increases multifold. Good times lie ahead for gamblers who streamline but do so a bit differently now than they did in 1986. Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, which features the top handicappers from the former Freescoreboard scorephone.
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Logical Fallacies in Sports Betting Keep Sportsbooks in the Black |
| Jun 26th, 2022 I am the showpiece for what your teachers told about never knowing when you will implement the wisdom taught inside school walls. Yes, I’m among students who recklessly deemed certain subjects will be forever inoperable independent of the classroom. My amazement at how few bettors know the difference between inductive and deductive reasoning, not limited to but embodied by this idiotic falsehood. I’m in the majority of individuals assured I’d never employ Algebra beyond a school exam. Now I exercise the knowledge every day in SQL language harnessing proven and skeptically sound computer systems. Little did I know how a philosophy course I took in college would be priceless in sports handicapping. We covered logical fallacies in depth, learning the pitfalls, how to spot and sidestep them. “I saw the Jets play last week against New England” and based on that anecdotal evidence, I decided they looked so bad I’m betting against them (or they looked so imposing, I will bet on them). These Jackdaws in a peacock’s feathers are a dime-a-dozen on YouTube handicapping shows. It’s almost as if these young and dapper “handicappers” are paid to reinforce handicapping urban legends to please the sportsbook(s) that sponsors and often produce the videos. Hey wait just a…. Likely the most widespread robotic gaffe is along the lines of, “I watched them last week and they were dominated on both sides of the ball. Now they are playing a team that is better than them. I can’t see how they can stop them” Tenderfoot pretty face ignores they are spewing a classic anecdotal fallacy. The sample size is too small, and teams adjust, plus the NFL is about regression towards the mean. When a team is off a loss by at least 20 points, getting 3.5 or more (playing a superior opponent), they are a decent 373-305-12 ATS for 55 percent winners if their opponent is not also off a 20-point or more loss. This is hardly my best angle but embodies the flaws of simply fading teams that looked horrible when you bet them the preceding week. A general NFL betting guideline proven odds sharks told me years ago that I should heed is to make a line before each team plays the previous week, adjust for injuries, but do not overplay to the previous week’s results. Bookies have only assisted by posting look-ahead lines. If one moves more than 1.5 points on a low spread, two or so on a large spread, and personnel moves are not the reason, put a checkmark to fade the line move. Why? Especially, but not limited to the NFL, John Q. Public overreacts to what he last witnessed, not only demonstrating anecdotal but also recency bias. As a pro gambler, I can verify so much of what is taught in the classroom is applied to sports handicapping. You can bet on it. Joe Duffy has been featured as a betting expert on media all over the world for good reason. His picks have been winning publicly since 1988 on the scorephones.
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Winning Ugly Is How Pro Gamblers Bet NFL |
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| Jun 23rd, 2022 One of the calamitous self-fulfilling prophecies in sports gambling is the blockhead who insists on mindlessly betting on the far superior side. They mitigate this by proclaiming they’d prefer to lose waging on a prodigious team (like the Patriots during the Brady era) than on a dreadful one. Therefore bookies shade the line towards the superior teams and against the bottom feeders, while sharps pounce upon the empirical rule to buy low and sell high. Why would anyone want to bet against a team with a winning percentage of .850 or better, especially corroborated with at least 12 wins? No rational person could contemplate staking against a team that predominate. Then again, we pros would call attention to the fact stated teams are a wretched 48-80-3 since 1996. In fact, when underdogs, they are a malodorous 3-14 for .176 percent. Wager hard-earned money on a gruesome team? That’s just embracing punishment. Experts counter with the fact an underdog with winning percentage of .150 or less and at least four losses are 350-269-17, even greater on the road at 195-167-4. Why would anyone not crave to bankroll the much hotter team? The rejoinder if fact based. When I say opposite streak, it pertains to one team on a SU winning streak and the other on a losing streak. If New England won three in a row, the Giants, their adversary lost two in a row, the “combined opposite streaks” would be five. Not outrageously, the greater the number of the dichotomous streaks are, the lower the ATS winning percentage of the ascending team plummets. Here is the ATS record of the hotter team based on the cumulative streak they are on.
When Joeybagodonuts sees a team that has won their last seven confronting a team that has flunked outright in five straight, Joey may pass. He may bet the hotter team, but there is slim chance he will bet the ice-cold squad. Therefore, if the genuine line should be -7, Joey will have to lay more like -9. This is pivotal for a gambler. Of course, it’s excruciating to root for a grossly inferior and colder team, but the payoff is magnificent. Great ESPN evergreen story about Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy’s rise to greatness an where he got his start! Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com |
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Gambler Billy Walters Influence on the Greatest Capper Ever Explained |
| Jun 11th, 2022 When I first burst into betting ascendancy full-time back in 1988, I got wind of the famed “Computer Boys” betting syndicate headed by renowned gambler Billy Walters. Ages before the interwebs and services like DonBest, we procured our odds from J&J odds service, via a telephone rundown. But they also had a callback service for when they believed the boys placed a bet. The Burger Man and the cute-looking daughter of the owner were among the workforce that had us on speed dial. That was the era of corner bookie, hence we would customarily conquer the line moves getting great middle prospects by betting with several outlets. Still, I was most fascinated with the influence and science of referenced betting consortium. I wanted to replicate and eclipse their conquests. Via Computer Sports World, I unearthed a software package developed by distinguished statistician Dr. Mike Orkin, “The Pointspread Analyzer.” It changed my life. I matured into the numbers cruncher I aspired to be. Inputting countless data, I confirmed many theories, humbly refuted others in objective testing and trial while identifying previously undreamt-of betting systems, exploring literally almost any valuable state of affairs germane to a sports trader. How does an NFL team following three straight double-digit wins execute ATS against a team off subsequent double-digit losses? Should I ride or fade an NBA team with winning percentage of .750 or higher if they are off a loss? Is it consequential if they are playing home or road? What a war chest of knowledge I had at my fingertips. The bulk of my theories proved to be well-founded, reinforcing my contrarian conceptions before there was such a thing. It is good to pick bad was certified. Sinking and substandard teams had great value, superior and ascending teams were overprized. This reality is sustainable today. The rabble relishes betting on the better and hotter team and the oddsmakers recognized it then and distinguish it now. Written in DOS, Orkin’s Windows version Snoop Data wasn’t as user-friendly. Sadly, the niche program faded away. To the rescue was SportsDataBase, a terrific cloud-based program coded by a physicist Dr. Joe Meyer. BetLabs, subsumed by the multi-million-dollar Action Network is satisfying too, but once one masters the SQL language of Meyer’s program, it becomes a more lethal weapon than BetLabs or StatFox. Though my site OffshoreInsiders.com is a mom-and-pop shop competing against Fortune 500 companies, there is one reason I proceed to prosper as both a gambler and professional handicapper: the merit of the finished product. My obsession with bias-free computer-aided testing, achieving thousands of manhours of research with the push of a few keystrokes, endures me as cutting edge. My hunger for reproducing the triumph of Billy Walters computer group has not waned in more than 30 years of computer implemented handicapping. Enjoy the ride with me fellow sports investors. |
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Artificial Intelligence in Sports Betting: The Good, Bad, and Ugly |
| Jun 7th, 2022 Power ratings, computer models, simulators have become all the rage in recent years. Pretty much every high-traffic sports site tenders their own edition. But are any even worth a crap in beating books like Bovada? The answer is yes…and no and in some cases are no…and yes. There is a lad I’ve been exchanging intel with for years. He’s a big-time whale and stakes more per wager than most will bet in a month. He prefers not to be named, so I will call him Sugar Pockets. Pockets has been gripped with computer-aided handicapping. He conducts surveillance on Prediction Machine, Team Rankings, Predictem, Oddsshark, Foxsheets, MasseyRatings, Accuscore, Sportsline and keeping comprehensive records, splitting by sport, college and pro, side, moneyline, even if they are better isolating favorites or underdogs, overs or unders. With samples sizes that stretched multiple years and each with hundreds of games in football and thousands in other sports, I was a bit underwhelmed at first. Though Sugar Pockets demonstrated that past performance was indicative of future results, my reasonable doubt was based on how can this simulator be so good in NBA and NFL, yet a fade in college basketball? Other programs were just the opposite. In being even-handed, I acknowledged how some good ole-fashioned human cappers were terrific only in specific sports. So, it’s logical even upper crust models would be superior in one or two sport year in and year out. It wasn’t until a handful of months later the lightbulb went off on top of my head. Doh. With my computer systems—a different AI than prediction software, I ascertained years ago and continue to run to the bank with understanding that pro sports tend to be about overcorrection and statistical regression, while college sports is more about momentum and riding streaks. Upon my manifestation, Sugar Pockets results all checked out. Sportsline for example is very weighty on recent play, making it good in college basketball, but no-so-much in NBA. In fact, spoiler alert and hot tip, their NBA totals are pretty much auto-fade. Inversely, Accuscore puts more significance on full season results often contradicting Sportsline. I hook Pockets up with some intel as well. But now that I have accurately weighted meticulous in-depth crib sheet to guide me, the simulators and machine intelligence is used as a part of my repository. As technology evolves, so must us pro cappers. I have plenty of “it’s not broken, don’t fix it” formulas, but careful calibration ensures the best will keep progressing into in the future. There is no best gambling outcome emulator overall. But the strengths and weaknesses vary from sport to sport for the sensible preceding explanations. And the opportunities and obstacles of each are glaringly profitable. Vetted sportsbooks and top shelf handicappers at OffshoreInsiders.com led by the author, Grandmaster Handicapper Joe Duffy. |
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Dooleys Believe in Trap Games; Sharps Use Them to Their Advantage |
| Jun 2nd, 2022 I hear it all the time from squares and even people who used to sell picks for a living such as retired tout Oscar Dooley, widely accepted as the quintessential tyro handicapper in this history of the trade. “Seems like the oddsmakers are baiting you to bet” a certain side. Dunces like this keep the books subsidized for the rest of us. Assuredly, the bookies never try to decoy gamblers into betting a side. If they did, we sharp would swoop in on our prey and exploit the over-corrected line. Then again, in reality we do pounce on lines that appear “fishy” to the great unwashed bettor. My adage, if it doesn’t make sense, it makes dollars. Straight up records and rankings are lag indicators. The odds are lead indicators. I have countless examples of counterintuitive systems that win in my database, most up 80-200 plus units and with z-scores of 4.5 or higher. Though the below aren’t instances of my most lethal systems, they are representative of occurrences in which I hear are “trap” games.
Remember, home field advantage is three points. So if a road team is not getting at least that much, the strongly implied statement by the oddsmakers is that the visitor is better, despite the polls. But that’s not how the neophyte brain functions. Joey Bag o’ Donuts notices the “better” team is somehow a home dog and asserts, “It’s like they bookies want you to bet” the superior puppy. Fake news. The lead indictor wins out again. How about win a team is an NFL favorite even though they have at least four fewer wins than their opponent? Trap, trap, trap…right? Not so fast. A favorite, despite at least a four-win deficit is 40-22 ATS, 44-21 outright. But surely fading NBA favorites with inferior records must be a great go-against. Seems like a trap though… Away favorites in said situation are 314-235-7 for 57 percent. In fact, the bigger the favorite the winning percentage goes up as a general rule of thumb. If a game looks like a trap, there is a reason behind it. Go with the statement the oddsmakers are making. There are plenty of Spider Dooleys feeding the bookies. The author, Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com and has been winning for you since the scorephone days of the 1980s.
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In college football, when the oddsmakers tell you the lower ranked team is the superior team, weaponize that knowledge against them. If a lower ranked road team is not getting at least three points to the higher ranked team, betting on the lower ranked squad is 12-2 SU and ATS since 2015. MLB Handicapping and Fantasy Baseball: ERA Versus WHIP |
| Jun 1st, 2022 I share oodles of information and debate philosophies with many sharp players on a continuous basis. Such locking of horns is imperative to knowledge progression. Said argumentations are to handicapping advisers what scholarly journals are to academia. One of the most heated deliberations among the sharpest of the sharks is how to weigh a pitcher’s ERA relative to his WHIP. I realize most baseball fans know what an ERA is, but many are not as versed on WHIP. The formula is walks+hits/innings pitched. As much as I savor involving myself in debate with other masters of the trade, inevitably I am the one screaming the remedy is both. I tell them it’s the equivalent of asking a doctor whether one should diet or exercise. Sure, conquering one or the other is better than neither, but any reputable physician advises they are not mutually exclusive. A true handicapping scientist knows that careful interpretation of both ERA and WHIP neutralizes the inherent flaws of both while reinforcing the stronghold of each numerator. Here is a pro-WHIP argument I often hear and articulated on rec.gambling.sports newsgroup by one of the participants: The ERA can be affected by good fortunate (luck) far more than WHIP. The walks and hits that a pitcher gives up show his skills facing a batter and will rise as he continues to allow hits and walks as it should. But the same poor pitching, which allowed the walks and hits onboard, isn’t necessarily reflected in his ERA stat. He may escape lucky. His ERA can be affected either direction by the help he gets from his mates and/or the wind and/or the size of the ballpark. This is particularly important in the first handful of starts of the early season, where averages can be easily skewed by a few innings. A pitcher allowing a 400’ shot to center for example when a breeze is blowing in or the fielder makes a circus catch over the wall” escapes with no runs scored, saving his ERA. But in a different park the same 400’ shot to center is a homerun, or the wind blows it in the gap for a double to score a couple of runs and his ERA goes up! So, one fortunate guy gets a low ERA and the less fortunate guy, who allowed the SAME number of hits and walks, maybe even LESS, his ERA goes UP! Meanwhile, the WHIP stat is not affected unfairly in that way, and as such I feel it more indicative of the pitcher’s skill. I agree with many of the points raised but the dissertation was a bit one-sided review of the pros and cons. WHIP can be very imperfect as well. It does not measure a pitcher’s ability to pitch out of tough situations or whether he gives up a disproportionate number of singles and walks relative to the pitcher who has a propensity to give up the long ball. Pitchers who can get the ground ball double play when they need it or can bear down with runners in scoring position will generally do better in the ERA category than WHIP. Plus, in a discussion with some of the top baseball predictors on the planet, one of the elites of the elite reminded us that the team that scores more runs wins 100 percent of the time. The team that gets the most walks plus hits often loses. As devil’s advocate, I added the team that gets the most runs is not always the team that allowed the fewer earned runs. Hence, I must be adamant as an inescapable stipulation that because baseball’s definition of earned runs is not without glitch, especially from a handicapping standpoint, an old hand also must pay heed to unearned runs. After all, there are no such things as an unearned hit or walk in the WHIP stat. However, seeing some of the top handicapping geniuses get in heated dispute of the pros and cons of each statistic only reinforced what I believed all along: the few wizards out there never, ever ignore one math unit at the expense of the other. As the sports doctor the only baseball picks that I give my patients will be from knowledge that a steady diet of winners involves exercising both ERA and WHIP. Duffy’s picks anchor OffshoreInsiders.com. He is perhaps the most published and respected author on sports gambling theory and has been featured as a regular guest as the handicapping expert on the Rick Ballou Show on Sporting News Radio, Gamblers Zoo national radio show, the Meat and Potatoes gambling show, Pro Fantasy Sports Internet radio and Grogan’s Fantasy Football show.
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Emotion and Sports Handicapping |
| Jun 1st, 2022 I write this article knowing there is nothing joyful about benefiting from tragedy, albeit in this case indirectly. But every now and then off field tragedy causes an emotional response from players that cannot be manufactured or duplicated, nor should be ignored by gamblers, as impure as it seems. I keep hearing after-the-fact experts telling us that no team was going to beat the New Orleans Saints in their Monday night game against the Atlanta Falcons, the first game in New Orleans in the post-Katrina era. We told you all that before the game as New Orleans was our Monday Night Game of the Year. In short, New Orleans was playing in no uncertain terms, the biggest game in franchise history, while Atlanta was simply in the way. While I do not mind bragging, I have to admit, I am an after-the-fact Bill Buckner and Jacky Smith all wrapped into one in missing the Rice intangible. Before I go in any further, I will again acknowledge, there is a certain level of unease in exploiting tragedy in sports handicapping but ignoring such angle benefits only the bookmakers. Rice, a double-digit dog, crushed Army 48-14. They were riding the emotion of freshman defensive back Dale Lloyd collapsing earlier in the week at practice and passing away. In 2001, our MLB Game of the Year was when the NY Mets played their first home game since 911, and were a home dog to Atlanta. True, the Mets had to get a dramatic walk off home run from Mike Piazza to win, but the seemingly scripted ending was reflective of how the Mets were simply not going to be denied victory that night. One of my first NHL regular season selections was November 15, 1985. I bet on the Philadelphia Flyers in their first game back after star goaltender Pelle Lindbergh was killed in a car accident. The Flyers, as a big underdog, dominated the then seemingly invincible Edmonton Oilers. I even decided to retroactively test this theory. Is there a more poignant sports speech in history than Lou Gehrig’s “Luckiest man in the world” speech. Honestly, I didn’t know the game score was that day, but I researched it convinced there was no way the Yankees lost. I was right; they crushed the Washington Senators 11-1 following that historic speech on Independence Day 1939. Emotion should never be underestimated and simply cannot be contrived. Regrettably opportunity knocks when real-life circumstances transcend sports. But it is opportunity nonetheless. Joe Duffy is founder of OffshoreInsiders.com which features the world’s best handicappers. |
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Don't Get Defensive, Take Offense to Winning |
| May 3rd, 2022 If only the old cliches were true, handicapping football would be a piece of cake. You know, “Winning begins with defense” or “Games are won at the point of attack”. If this were true, Buddy Ryan’s old Eagle teams with Hall-of-Famers and Pro Bowlers galore would have won a few Super Bowls. They never won a playoff game. Marty Schottenheimer eventually lost his job in Kansas City because his final team went from Super Bowl favorites to regular season flop because his mega-talented defense was always on the field. When you consider that the line is affected much more by the quality of skilled position players than anything else, if the old cliches were true, defensive dogs would hit about 90%. When was the last time a game was taken off the board or circled solely due to the injury of a great defensive player? The answer is probably the same as the last time a quarterback’s status was unknown and the game was on the board and not circled in every sports book. One of the biggest reasons that so many gamblers, not to mention football fans have this misconception is that they do not draw a distinction between a great offense and a high powered one. Great offenses are not the ones that can consistently beat a team with a 60-yard bomb, but teams that can over and over again get 15-20 play seven-minute scoring drives. Also, there is no such thing as depth these days, so a few key injuries to skilled position players can literally mean the difference between worst and first. Indianapolis and Denver entered 2001 as among the favorites to win the Super Bowl and rightfully so. However, neither made the postseason and not surprisingly. Both teams were devastated by injuries. Indianapolis became the quintessential team that put up seemingly impressive stats, but knowledgeable handicappers and football fans know that there is a big difference between impressive fantasy football numbers and quality statistics for winning on the field and with the offshore book. Great offenses keep defenses off the field. The greatest team of all time was the 1972 Miami Dolphins, who not-so-coincidently had the greatest ball control team ever. They gained an average of 5.6 yards per play. Their fourth leading rusher averaged 5.3 yards per carry. The reason their “No Name Defense” was so successful was because you don’t give up many points or much yardage when you are standing on the sidelines watching your offense meticulously move those yard markers. Great offenses are not measured by points scored. There are no official statistics, but much like the complicated quarterback ratings, a more accurate formula for measuring a successful offense would take strongly into account points per possession and average length of each possession. There is a colossal difference average points per game and average points per possession. Likewise, there is a monster divergence between time of possession and length of each possession. The best, if not the only way to slow down the St. Louis Rams when all their pieces are healthy is to take them out of a rhythm. If Kurt Warner is watching seven minute drives by his opponent from the sidelines, not only can he not develop a groove, but he will not throw too many touchdown passes from the sidelines. The best defense is not just a great offense; it is a great ball control offense. But yes, long drives punctuated by scores are the best defense because it is a lot easier to play defense with a big lead when the other team’s options are limited. When of the biggest gifts when it comes to NFL totals is when it comes to a stud ball control offensive player is hurt, most people falsely assume that their games become lower scoring. False. Often teams must compensate by opening it up more. It is no coincidence that when Edgerrin James went down with injury last year, the Colts games became much higher scoring. They still had the aptitude to score, but not an ability to keep their suspect defense off of the field. Do not give me balderdash about the stats Dominic Rhodes put up. Do not get me wrong, he is one of the best backups in the league, but he was facing defenses geared to stopping the pass and no matter how you slice it, he is not in the same class as James. While the chic media told you how disappointing Denver’s defense was, I guarantee you if Terrell Davis and Ed McCaffrey were healthy, not to mention the arm of Brian Greise, magically the Broncos would have had some of the best defensive stats in the league. Also, before you say that the Ravens of two years ago and the Patriots of last year, were defensive oriented teams, one must consider the factors. There were just were not any great healthy, note healthy offenses out there, so some mediocre team had to win by default. Not to mention, we all saw clearly that the Ravens missed chain-moving Jamal Lewis and that the Patriots “defense” suddenly improved when Tom Brady looked like the greatest Cinderella story since, well Kurt Warner. This is not to mention that the Ravens became the ultimate aberration of winning a championship with a mediocre offense with a defense that some say was the best ever. Not one of the top in the game, but maybe the best ever. Plus, let’s face it, Brian Billick one of the game’s top offense minds, proved you can get blood from a stone by somehow making (gulp) Trent Dilfer a mistake-free quarterback. If you want great defensive stats, get a great ball control offense. But the most important caveat is that that offense has to stay healthy. The Cowboys of the early 90’s and the Broncos of the late 90’s are perfect examples. The difference between a team among the bottom statistically on defense and at the top is a great quarterback, running back and receivers/tight ends. Both the aforesaid teams more than met that. So, you want another undefeated team like the 1972 Dolphins? Give me two thousand yard rushers (in a 14-game schedule) and someone the caliber of Jim Kiick as a third option. Add two parts much better than average QB’s like Bob Greise and Earl Morrall. Throw in nice receiving corps and I give you another No Name Defense with any starting unit in the NFL. But what does this mean in handicapping? Again, as alluded to, convoluted logic so often applies to totals when a key offensive player is hurt. In many cases, it increases the likelihood of points being scored contrary to popular belief. The same is true on the other side of the ball. If a run-stopping middle linebacker is hurt, it often will mean that the other team will run more. It may mean that they will have more success on offense but not necessarily score more points. It could mean more ball control, thus fewer total possessions. Good handicappers must evaluate all injuries in their totality. Bookmakers make a fortune because suckers assume that if a key offensive player is hurt, it is likely to mean fewer points or if a key defensive player is out, it means more points. The oddsmakers know and adjust accordingly. Joe Q Public adjusts incorrectly. But someone must subsidize our winnings. Joe Duffy’s Picks at OffshoreInsiders.com is the top source for winners on the Internet He is perhaps the most published and respected author on sports gambling theory and has been featured as a regular guest as the handicapping expert on the Rick Ballou Show on Sporting News Radio, Gamblers Zoo national radio show, the Meat and Potatoes gambling show, Pro Fantasy Sports Internet radio and Grogan’s Fantasy Football show. Check out his daily news and notes at JoeDuffy.net |
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Better Quarterbacks and Running Backs Often Mean Lower Scoring Games |
| May 3rd, 2022 Tom Brady is the most valuable player to the New England Patriots defense. Steve McNair has greatly improved the Baltimore Ravens even if the pure numbers do not seem to jibe with that statement. I should clarify, that is pure numbers to the uneducated eye. If Michael Vick got injured and Matt Schaub took over as quarterback, the Atlanta Falcons would probably get more yards and points, but would not be a better team. Dan Marino and Barry Sanders were the two most overrated players in the NFL during my lifetime. All the above statements are true, have or had serious handicapping ramifications, and are all related. There is no question that the best defense in football is a ball control, effective and efficient offense. We love quarterbacks like Brady, McNair and Ben Roethlisberger because they run an offense like water torture. They slowly but surely matriculate an offense down the field, keep the other team from scoring by not letting them have the ball. In the cases of Vick, Brady, McNair and Roethlisberger among others, they may have a backup who will point more points on the board. The problem is, for both teams. When handicapping the ramifications of a key injury, especially a quarterback and running back ,one must analyze not just how much of a talent drop-off there will be, but a comparison of the style of the player and his replacement. That's why I made the statements about Marino and Sanders. Both were too much of a feast or famine player. High powered offenses do have to “outscore the opposition, which at least in the figurative sense does not mean the same as score more points. “Better offenses are not necessarily ones that can score the most points by any means, nor are the best players and schemes those that are the highest powered and explosive” agrees Stevie Vincent of the OffshoreInsiders.com Network. When handicapping skilled position players, note that the most effective in leading his team to victory is one who can keep help keep the other offense off the field, even if it means fewer points scored for his team. Draft Kings, Sports Interaction, Betway, Unibet, theScore Bet, Prize Picks, Parx, Betfred, BetRivers, FanDuel, WynnBET, PointsBet, Caesars, BetMGM, all fear the picks of Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com
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Computer Stats Biggest in the NBA |
| May 2nd, 2022 Arguably the sport we hear run-of-the-mill gamblers and fair to middling touts claim is the hardest to predict would be the NBA. Some even imprudently claiming it’s a true crapshoot. We strongly disagree, but that is because we are learned enough to realize not all weapons used in handicapping are weighed evenly in all sports. For example, with college basketball here, our news and notes from our private clipboard has endless valuable lowdown. They are compiled from hometown newspapers and the team’s own press releases. But in the NBA, the computer programs become most valuable. Retired NBA handicapper Curt Thomas will be the first to admit he is not a great expert on team personnel and is even more upfront in admitting it cost him in other sports, when he had his own service. However, he is a certified computer nerd. He found the sport that had the highest number of unique systems with lofty z-scores was the NBA and not surprisingly the one that past results were a precursor to future final scores. Using winning percentage to date, margin of loss/victory in recent games, and pointspreads to measure perceived difference in quality between opponents, top a list of parameters in which he finds comparing teams in similar situations in past years goes a long way forecasting future results. Thomas believes with the so many x-factors involved in NBA travel schedules over an arduous season, the patterns of when a team suffers a letdown or has a fire lit under them, are much more distinguishable than all the other sports combined. Forensic handicapper Stevie Vincent of OffshoreInsiders.com agrees even though he uses trends and angles instead of systems. Again, systems are not team specific such as “Bet with a team with a winning percentage of .600 or above off a double-digit road loss”, while angles are team and/or coach specific. “We use angles with great success picking pro basketball totals” Vincent says. He believes forensic handicapping is best in using past patterns to distinguish when teams will adjust the pace of games, hence a goldmine for predicting over/under plays. Those computer nerds getting picked on by the jocks in high school was quite easy to predict. Talk about revenge of the nerds, now the propeller heads make their biggest profits knowing the high paid jocks are every bit as predictable, especially in pro basketball.
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Not All March Madness Betting Beliefs Are Urban Legends |
| May 1st, 2022 Our last article articulated our enthusiasm regarding an ESPN Insider series. It was scientific study that found common attributes on overachievement and underachievement teams in March Madness. We believe scrutiny and application will only increase our “Lord of the Big Dance” status. A great many of our articles, over the years, focused on exposing and fading gambling myths. But not all commonly held beliefs are untruths. A great many of our articles, over the years, focused on exposing and fading gambling myths. But not all commonly held beliefs are untruths. There were some trends that the research found are more in tune with perception. Perhaps topping the list is the importance of experience. Coaches with at least 10 tournament appearances and teams with at least four straight tournament bids did very well both in beating higher seeds or holding serve when they were the better seeded team. However, not surprisingly “experience” was significantly more affective when combined with other top performing factors, such as frontcourt scoring ability, star power (defined as “All Americans”). This is consistent with what we’ve stressed for years. Having been there and done that is icing on the cake, but not the entire package by any means. In other words, a talented and seasoned team is better than a gifted newbie, but maturity in and of itself has little value if not backed by ability. One finding that I’m not sure whether to categorize it as contrarian or widely accepted, but instead classify it under a more significant umbrella: invaluable foreknowledge. When united with other attributes, teams that enter the tournament on a one-game losing streak do exceptionally well in the tournament. This should come as a surprise to nobody, though it likely does. We used the terminology of the study, but perhaps the term “streak” is a misnomer. Teams that enter the Dance off one and only one loss obviously are not “streaking” in the wrong direction. This of course is not flawless. Hypothetically they could have lost 4-of-5 as an example, but it would be the exception. Capturing conference championship means winning three or four games in a row, usually in as many days and it the case of the big conferences, with as little as three days rest before the Field of 65. A team off a loss is almost always an at-large team and will generally be better rested than the conference champs. A little wake-up call before the tournament starts will be a positive for a quality team. Let’s face it, teams that are good enough to make the Field of 65, somewhere along the line showed they have an ability to rebound from a one-game setback. Not to mention, both the NCAA committee and the betting public can tend to overreact based on an early exit in the conference tournaments. The ESPN quantitative analysis of course, was not gambling specific, so hence it will not produce direct and specific systems to apply. However, the trial and error have beyond reproach produced very advantageous rules of engagement for the sports gambler during March Madness pointspread betting. Joe Duffy is former General Manager of the Freescoreboard scorephone network and CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, the premier hub of world-class handicappers.
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