NFL Free Pick – October 19, 2025 (4:05 PM ET)
Game: Indianapolis Colts vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Play: Chargers ML (-125) at Heritage
Capper: Jack Jones

Game Analysis:
Jack Jones’ free pick for Sunday is on the Los Angeles Chargers moneyline. This matchup presents a classic “sell high” opportunity on the Indianapolis Colts, who have built their 5-1 record against one of the league’s softest schedules. Four of those wins came against Miami, Tennessee, Las Vegas, and Arizona (without Kyler Murray). Even their narrow victory over Denver came with an assist from a penalty that extended the game-winning drive. Their lone loss came against the Rams, the only quality opponent they’ve faced.

The Chargers, meanwhile, have earned their 4-2 mark against a mid-tier schedule that includes solid wins over the Chiefs and Broncos. Statistically, Los Angeles boasts one of the most balanced profiles in the league — ranking 7th in total offense (360.7 YPG) and 6th in total defense (301.7 YPG), while outgaining opponents by an average of 59 yards and 0.5 yards per play.

Indianapolis’ offensive tandem of Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor has produced consistent scoring, but the defense remains a glaring vulnerability. Despite facing weak offensive opponents, the Colts rank just 19th in total defense (329.2 YPG). Last week’s performance against the Cardinals — 400 total yards and 25 first downs allowed to Jacoby Brissett — exposed that weakness even further. With top cornerbacks Charvarius Ward and Kenny Moore both banged up, their secondary could again be depleted against a Chargers offense led by Justin Herbert.

Herbert continues to deliver despite offensive line injuries, and with Quentin Johnston (26 receptions, 377 yards, 4 TD)returning to the lineup, the Chargers’ air attack should exploit Indianapolis’ defensive lapses. On the defensive side, Khalil Mack is expected to return, further strengthening L.A.’s front seven.

All signs point to the Chargers maintaining control throughout this contest. They are the more complete team, have faced superior competition, and will be playing in front of their home crowd. Back Los Angeles on the moneyline (-125). Get Jack Jones picks

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