Market snapshot

• Matchup: No. 1 Ohio State vs No. 2 Indiana – Big Ten Championship

• Location: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indy – indoors, neutral but Big Ten country)

• Current line (DraftKings / consensus):

  • Spread: Ohio State -5.5

  • Total: 48.5–49.5

  • Moneyline: OSU ~-218, IU +180 (SI)

• Kick: Saturday, Dec. 6, 8 p.m. ET (DraftKings Network)

Team résumés

Ohio State

• Record: 12–0 (9–0 Big Ten), defending national champs, No. 1 AP. (Sports Reference)

• Scoring offense / defense: ~37.9 ppg scored, 7.6 ppg allowed (No. 1 scoring D nationally). (NCAA.com)

• ATS: 10–2 ATS; favored in every game, routinely laying big numbers. (SI)

• Last game: 27–9 at Michigan as -10, snapped multi-year skid and clinched division. (Ohio State)

• Head coach: Ryan Day.

• Key skill guys:

  • QB Julian Sayin – ~3,065 pass yards, true downfield threat. (ESPN.com)

  • RB Bo Jackson – just under 1,000 rush yards. (ESPN.com)

  • WR Jeremiah Smith – primary explosive target. (ESPN.com)

Indiana

• Record: 12–0 (9–0 Big Ten); first Big Ten title appearance ever, first 12–0 season in program history. (Sports Reference)

• Scoring profile: Around 44.3 ppg scored, 10.9 ppg allowed, +33.4 margin of victory – best differential in FBS. (Warren Nolan)

• ATS: 7–5 ATS; has covered as a dog (notably at Oregon) but occasionally overpriced as a big chalk. (SI)

• Signature wins: at Oregon (30–20 as +6.5), at Iowa, at Penn State. (SI)

• Head coach: Curt Cignetti (Year 2; program completely flipped). (Wikipedia)

• Key skill guys:

  • QB Fernando Mendoza – Heisman favorite, 2,758 pass yards, 32 pass TD, 5 INT, plus 6 rush TD. (The Crimson Quarry)

  • RB Roman Hemby – team’s lead back, big factor in recent ground-heavy blowouts. (The Crimson Quarry)

Heisman & narrative angles

• This is essentially a Mendoza (Indiana) vs Sayin (OSU) Heisman showcase. Heisman odds currently: Mendoza slight favorite (~+115), Sayin close behind (~+155). (The Crimson Quarry)

• A big performance by either QB in prime time can swing both Heisman voting and CFP seeding; you can expect both staffs to keep starters aggressive deeper into the game than a typical OSU blowout.

Location / “travel” notes

• Ohio State → Lucas Oil Stadium: ~176–178 miles from Columbus (about a 3-hour drive). (Travelmath)

• Indiana → Lucas Oil Stadium: ~50–51 miles from Bloomington (under an hour). (Rome2Rio)

• True neutral field in theory, but IU is the “home-state” team; OSU travels incredibly well, so crowd probably close to 50/50 with maybe a slight OSU edge in sheer numbers but more local noise for IU.

Matchup notes – when Ohio State has the ball

• OSU offense vs IU defense

  • Ohio State is efficient and balanced; Sayin pushes it vertically but they’ve comfortably leaned on the run with a lead. (ESPN.com)

  • Indiana’s defense allows ~252 yards per game and just 4.48 yards per play – far better than the brand name might suggest. (CFB Stats)

  • Indiana’s split stats: they’ve still been solid on the road/neutral (~292 yds allowed per game), so there’s no huge “home only” mirage. (CFB Stats)

• Key angles

  • If Indiana gets OSU in obvious passing downs, their 4–2–5 looks can disguise pressure and force Sayin into riskier throws – note he’s thrown picks in his last two road/neutral games. (CBS Sports)

  • OSU has been excellent at front-running: when they lead at half, the defense sits on opponents and games often die under the number.

Matchup notes – when Indiana has the ball

• IU offense vs OSU defense

  • Indiana is an explosive spread outfit; the downfield passing game and RPOs have shredded most Big Ten defenses. (Wikipedia)

  • Film/charting: IU’s downfield pass success rate sits around 55% vs four-man rush, dropping into the high-30s when defenses blitz and get home. (Addicted To Quack)

  • Ohio State’s defense is elite at generating pressure with four and playing sticky coverage behind it – that’s structurally the right way to defend this offense. (NCAA.com)

• Key angles

  • If OSU can create 2–3 obvious passing-down sacks/holding calls, that kills drives and favors the favorite/under.

  • If Indiana protects Mendoza and OSU can’t get heat without blitzing, IU’s explosive pass game can flip the script and make the +5.5 live all night.

ATS & total tendencies

• Ohio State ATS: 10–2 ATS, including an easy cover at Michigan last week; only non-covers were vs Ohio and at Purdue as massive chalk. (SI)

• Indiana ATS: 7–5 ATS; the market occasionally inflated their number vs mid-tier Big Ten teams, but they’ve answered in step-up games (Oregon, Penn State). (SI)

• Totals:

  • Indiana has gone over in 8 of 12 games – largely because their offense keeps scoring late. (SI)

  • A major model (SportsLine) leans Indiana +5.5 and Under 48.5, with the Under hitting in nearly 70% of sims. (CBS Sports)

  • Indoors, but both teams have championship-level defenses, so this is not a typical “Big 12-style” shootout setup.

Situational / intangible notes

• OSU off emotional revenge: Massive emotional peak vs Michigan, on the road, finally getting over the hump; classic spot where some bettors look to fade the favorite in a neutral title game the following week.

• Indiana in program “Super Bowl” spot: First-ever appearance in Indy, 12–0, coaching staff pushing the “no one believes in us” angle. Early-game script likely aggressive.

• Series history: OSU has won 30 straight vs IU; last Hoosier win was 1988. The line is telling you this is not your grandfather’s Indiana. (DraftKings Network)

How you might frame it on your card

You can slice this a bunch of ways, but structurally:

• Case for Ohio State -5.5

  • Best defense in the country by scoring and among the top in yards/play allowed. (NCAA.com)

  • Elite ATS profile (10–2) despite constant tax. (SI)

  • Defensive front matches up well with what bothers Indiana’s passing game (pressure with four, coverage-heavy behind). (Addicted To Quack)

• Case for Indiana +5.5

  • Point differential actually better than OSU’s; Hoosiers have obliterated most of the schedule. (Warren Nolan)

  • Heisman-favorite QB with legit weapons and a run game that just hung 355 rushing yards at Purdue. (The Crimson Quarry)

  • Neutral/indoor environment only ~50 miles from campus; no hostile-road factor. (Rome2Rio)

  • Popular computer model (SportsLine) prefers IU to cover and leans Under – so there’s at least some “model support” for dog + under correlation. (CBS Sports)

• Total angle

  • Two top-tier defenses, both capable of compressing the red zone. If either staff turtles on 4th-and-short in plus territory, it naturally leans Under.

  • Counterpoint: high-leverage Heisman/CFP stakes could keep both coaches aggressive late, which is the main Over path.

Great sources

• SI
• DraftKings Network
• CBS Sports
• The Crimson Quarry
• The Crimson Quarry