New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos

NFL Playoff Betting Preview, Market Analysis, and Prop Picks

The NFL playoffs are where pricing discipline, situational edges, and market psychology matter most. The matchup between the New England Patriots and the Denver Broncos is a textbook example of how sharp money, public bias, and advanced power ratings collide.

Below is a full breakdown of the opening line, current market movement, betting splits, efficiency metrics, and the best angles—both sides and player props—for this postseason showdown.

Market Overview

Opening Line:
New England -5.5 | Total 40.5

Spread Market

• Current Line: Patriots -5.5 | Broncos +5.5

• Best Available: Patriots -4.5 (-108) | Broncos +4.5 (-105)

• Bets: 73% Patriots | 27% Broncos

• Money: 59% Patriots | 41% Broncos

• Sharp Differential: +14% Broncos (more money than tickets)

Interpretation:
Despite overwhelming public support on New England, the Broncos are quietly attracting sharper money. The move off the opener and the positive money-to-ticket differential strongly suggest professional resistance at +5.5 and +4.5.

Total Market

• Opening Total: 40.5

• Best Odds: Over 42.5 (-110) | Under 42.5 (-105)

• Bets: 64% Over | 36% Under

• Money: 61% Over | 39% Under

Interpretation:
The market has been nudged upward, but not aggressively. This reflects optimism around offensive efficiency while still respecting playoff pace, weather variables, and conservative game scripts.

Moneyline Market

• Odds: Patriots -265 | Broncos +215

• Best Odds: Patriots -238 | Broncos +205

• Bets: 80% Patriots | 20% Broncos

• Money: 62% Patriots | 38% Broncos

Interpretation:
Public bettors are anchoring heavily to New England’s reputation and ATS dominance, while sharper money is less enthusiastic about laying heavy juice in a game projected to be tight.

Against-the-Spread & Efficiency Profile

• Patriots: 13-5-1 ATS, winning by +6.5 points per game

• Broncos: 8-9-1 ATS, +0.8 margin

• Denver Totals: Under 10-8 (-0.3)

• New England Totals: Over 12-7 (+1.2)

From a pure ATS standpoint, New England has been elite. However, efficiency-based regression metrics tell a more nuanced story.

According to TeamRankings, Denver has been the luckiest team in the NFL, finishing +3.8 wins above expectationbased on underlying performance. Notably:

• Denver managed a full-game overperformance against the #2-ranked San Francisco 49ers

• New England ranks third in luck at +2.4, meaning both teams have benefited from favorable variance

Luck metrics matter more in the playoffs, where margins tighten and randomness often regresses.

Projection Models Comparison

• Action Network:
  Patriots -3.5 | Total 41.8

• SportsLine:
  Patriots win 21–19

  • Denver covers 58% of simulations

  • Under hits 59% of the time

• MasseyRatings:
  Patriots 23–22

Consensus Takeaway:
Every major projection source lands well below the market spread and points toward a one-possession game. This aligns with sharp money behavior and reinforces value on the underdog.

Player Prop Picks

Jarrett Stidham — OVER 14 Rushing Yards

Playoff football changes quarterback behavior. Mobility becomes an asset, not a luxury.

• “Whatever it takes” mindset in elimination games

• In his last start with the Raiders, Stidham logged 14 rushing attempts

• Scramble opportunities increase against disciplined but aggressive fronts

This is a low bar with outsized upside if protection breaks down or red-zone plays extend.

Rhamondre Stevenson — OVER 47.5 Rushing Yards

Few backs are entering the postseason hotter.

• Averaging 7.0 yards per carry over his last six games

• 16 broken tackles in that span

• Consistently clearing 12+ carries in competitive game scripts

• Currently running with more downhill efficiency than TreVeyon Henderson

In a projected tight game, volume plus efficiency favors Stevenson clearing this number.

Final Betting Outlook

• The public sees dominance; the market sees balance

• Sharps are aligned with Denver and lower-margin outcomes

• Projection models uniformly call for a one-score game

• Player props offer clearer value than inflated sides

This is classic playoff pricing: respect the favorite, but follow the money, the models, and the math.

Professional discipline matters most in January