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The Most Important Sports Handicapping Article Ever Written |
Mar 2nd, 2008
This
is an updated version of an article written several years ago, AThe Ultimate Guide to
Being a Wise Guy for Not-so-Dummies”.
But as technology and sources for information have changed, we felt is
deserves a lot of updating and that’s what the staff of OffshoreInsiders.com
has done. One
of the most common questions that I get is where in God’s name (no pun
intended) do Wise Guys and sharp players get so much information? Just as the only way to Carnegie Hall is Apractice, practice,
practice”, the only way to win in sports handicapping is Ainformation, information,
information”. All
you need to get that information is to merely live, sleep, and breathe sports
handicapping. Well maybe forget the
sleep part. Siestas are really is not
much of an option in sports soothsaying.
An endless supply of coffee is indispensable apparatus as well. Also make sure that your insurance company
covers marriage counseling. Are
you still with me? If so, you are ready
to be a Wise Guy. Do
handicappers and high rollers really have “inside information”? In reality it depends on how loose your
definition of “inside information” is.
Didn’t Bill Clinton utter that same line or something to that
effect? Anyway,
Wise Guys and the few legitimate handicappers out there do have the time,
resources and knowledge of where and how to find useful information and data
that 99% of players do not. To put it
mildly, to win consistently which few do, takes a lot of time. The
Internet is bar none the greatest tool on the planet for obtaining peerless
particulars. Hometown newspapers and in
college so often the teams own SID sites are unbeatable for not-so-inside, but
certainly little known to the public facts. Sites
that are catered toward the gambler as well as those accommodating just to the
general sports fan can be of infinite value as well. In fact, as we will specify, fantasy sports
sites are among the best sites for the speculator as so much information is
overlapping. At
one time the best location for centralized links to both hometown press and the
teams SID websites is Sportspages.com.
They do an outstanding job of having links for each sport to each team’s
specific newspaper web page. Then
along came ESPN Insider, which takes it a step further. They do daily links to the local gazette
stories, which of course include both game raps and most importantly stories
concerning the games to bet that night.
This is done in all major betting sports. ESPN
is less than perfect as far as linking all game storiesCthey do miss a fair
amount, but there is more than plenty of information for the sports investor on
a daily basis. It is essentially a
one-stop hometown newspaper shop. But
like Sportspages, there is minimal information on the smaller conferencesCthe so-called mid majors. Sportsnetwork.com
does the best job of writing game previews in both college and professional
sports as far as information that is keen for the pony upper. The Sports Network is a wire service carried
by many sites including SportsCrew.com, which is as good as any as far as
syndicated content. What
is a person to do though for information on the more obscure colleges? No problem, now Google has a search engine
for the dailies that also includes quite a few of the team’s official sites as
part of the search inquiry. If Fairfield is playing Iona, a sports bettor need
just go to news.google.com and enter “Fairfield Iona” and Google can find any
news stories from that day searching even the small town scandal sheets. This
is true with high profile colleges and professional sports as well. Of course one need experiment when it comes
to more generic terms like AArizona” or ACincinnati” but by adding
one of the team’s nicknames or a term like Abasketball” can narrow the
information to exactly what one wants. No
pun intended but between news.google.com and ESPN Insider, it can be a Godsend
when it comes to info. Oh
my word, those who think that preseason football games
are a mere crapshoot are truly missing out on cash cows. Reading the team’s stomping ground ledgers are
goldmines for learning which teams are taking the exhibitions most seriously at
least from a standpoint of a final score. It
is very commonplace for coaches to flat out state that they want to instill a
winning habit in the preseason. This is
of course more true with fledgling coaches and young and/or traditionally
losing franchises. Quarterback and key
player rotations can be found with educated research. In
other cases, a little reading will manifest that there are several teams just
concerned with looking at certain young players. It is not uncommon for one team to play its
starters much longer than the other squad.
Best of all, coaches announce it before the game. Those
with limited time can get decent Cliff Notes just by reading the Associated
Press stories found on about oh about a million sports sites. The AP stories are at their best in the NFL
preseason, though quality information can be had in other sports as well
particularly college football. Every
now and then I have even uncovered a treasure at U-Net, which is a centralized
place for college student media. While
there is a select group of beat writers who I feel comfortable accepting what
they say at face value, any potential gem that I get at U-Net must be verified,
but one would be surprised at the information that can come from the college
media itself. Considering
there is a lot of overlapping information with handicapping and fantasy sports,
the fantasy sites are also great foundations of sports gambling
information. To put it mildly,
Footballinjuries.com is a no-brainer for the gambler in the NFL. Nobody comes close to not only giving
football injuries but also giving a fantastic analysis of how such will affect
teamsCwho the replacements are
for key injured players, key match-ups and the like. Rotowire, formally Rotonews is as
good as and sometimes better than some of the gambling injury sites simply
because they give some breakdown as to how an injury will affect a team. The injuries furnished to the gamblers can be
found at Don Best, Jim Feist and the Sports Network. Actually
Don Best’s expensive Premium Service does the best job of real-time
late-breaking information. Feist’s
expensive service is just a notch behind. But
again the problem with all of the above sites besides their modest accuracy
rate is that all the reader gets is a player name and a status. But unless one knows the accurate scoop on
every player on every team and their backups, often those injury sites are at
best starting points. What good is “Squid
State, guard Pika Winner; questionable “knee” when that is the sole information
provided? Is
Pika Winner the conference’s best player on a team
that has no depth or is he a part-time starter playing for a team whose
strength is at his position? Rot wire
does a better job, especially in MLB at analyzing how that injury will
specifically affect a team. But Wise
Guys must Aresearch, research, and
research”. More times than not, the
teams SID site will give very good information on the particulars of the
player: games started, stats and ditto on his
replacement. The home ground fish wraps
must be cross-referenced as well. I
have also found that all-sports stations on the Internet can have some good
stuff as well. ESPN Radio and Sporting News Radio are much better than Fox
Sports Radio for such. Thank the
original God for XM Radio, which has all three sports networks 24/7. You better
believe I will be listening every waking hour to the radio sources during March
Madness. But
what are the specifics that I look for?
I love it when I hear a player or a coach or better yet players (plural)
admitting that they suffered a disheartening loss and have to follow it up with
another tough game. Such teams make great
go-against plays. This
is most true with college basketball and NBA teams that are
not true Atop shelf” teams. For the latter this is especially true if a
team is playing back-to-back and/or in the midst of a five-games-in-four-nights
trip. Few
things jump out at me more than is hoops when a team is on the wrong side of an
11-2 run to lose “outright of course) by a point or two then has to play either
the next night or the night after. This
is most common in the NBA but can also happen in the Ivy League’s and West
Coast Conference, which play back to back.
But the generally the remaining conferences on the left coast including
the Pac-10 play Thursday and Saturday; so heart-breaking losses are very
important factors to track. Keep an eye
on teams that play Saturday and Monday as well. For
the NBA keep in mind that NBA.com in conjunction with Sportsline will give one
a play-by-play rundown of the entire pro hoop game. There are some glitches in their system to be
honest, but one can for the most part get a 100% accurate breakdown of how a
game ended. For
college, the Sportnetwork.com logs the sequence of scores that they sent, so
one can get a decent idea of heartrending endings, especially when
cross-referencing with the game recaps. This
also applies but with different criterion in baseballChow much the bullpen was
used etc, but that is for a future article.
Many sites give pitch-by-pitch breakdowns as provided by Stats Inc. In
the NBA especially and this occurs more often than one thinks, I just get giddy
when I read that a few players thought their upcoming opponent ran the score up
or was shown up by a gratuitous windmill slam dunk or something to that
effect. This is especially true if the
team that feels they were shown up was on the road in the referenced game and
is playing home in the upcoming game. Also
certain beat writers especially in the NFL and college football can be
outstanding giving accurate unit versus unit breakdowns. But Wise Guys have the
experience to distinguish as to who the heck knows what they are talking about
and who is blowing smoke I
regret that Sportingnews.com for several years was a must-visit for college
football as they broke down literally every Division I game. However they have reduced that feature. Sadly
I guess the budget limited the quantity down to the marquee games and quite
frankly the quality seemed to go with it. They
also were one of the best sites scrutinizing the NCAA Basketball
Tournament. I noticed that ESPN Insider
picked up the slack during the 2003-04 bowl season. The gambler can only hope they have the
updated write-ups for the Big Dance match-ups that Sportingnews.com had. As
mentioned in previous articles, one of the big keys to handicapping games is
spotting deceptive final scores in handicapping or how and why teams really
lost. That is why any true handicapper
must own a satellite dish. I won’t leave
home without it. Well I guess that’s why
I don’t leave home. It is also
invaluable as far as scouting mismatches in personnel match-ups. Sports
gaming posting boards are good vehicles for gamblers to share information. In
a perfect world the best sites would be not be moderated but in places like the
sports gambling newsgroup and other sites flaming takes precedence over content
and forces valuable contributors to go to the refereed sites. Much
like distinguishing from amongst the good beat writers and the unqualified
scribes, one must differentiate between the posting board participants who
provide quality and accurate insight and those who cannot. Utilizing
the best databases is essential to triumphant prognostication. There are many out there, both free and pay
sites. Computer
Sports World is best for baseball, Covers.com for both the NBA and college
hoops. With 10-16 game schedules for
college football and the NFL one must as we have stated have the ability to
look beyond the mere data. Not ignore it
mind you but an aberrational game here and there can dilute the statistical
significance of football raw numbers. Feist’s
site has some good databases but Covers and others made them obsolete. Chalk Gaming,
which like StatFox, is now syndicated at OffshoreInsiders.com
has quality information and for those who very much like to ride hot teams,
they can rank teams in different categories over the last five or ten games. There,
you now know the trade secrets. All you
need to do is invest 35 hours a day, 10 days a week, 60 weeks a year. America’s greatest sports service the Dream
Team at GodsTips, anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com has done it successfully for years and so can
you. |
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