Sports betting sharps and novices alike have tough decisions in NFL playoff wagering this weekend, as none of the four matchups seems like a slam dunk. The Ravens/Patriots game is no exception; the Pats haven’t lost at home this season but they came apart at the seams down the stretch. Is this the end of the Belichick dynasty?

Ravens vs Patriots

Sunday, January 10, 1:00 p.m. ET

NFL odds favorite: Patriots -3.5

Based on their talent and the statistics, the Baltimore Ravens’ 9-7 record qualifies as “underachieving” this season. In other words, don’t let the record fool you; this is a well-rounded, competitive team capable of beating anyone on a given day. For the past decade, Baltimore built its reputation on formidable defense. For the most part, the Ravens lived up to that billing this year. They were stout against the run and finished with the league’s No. 3 defense. They were solid against the pass statistically but, with Fabian Washington lost to a torn ACL, the Ravens secondary has some soft spots.

We can thus expect Tom Brady and the Patriots to exploit that weakness via the deep passing game. Randy Moss still gets open deep with the best of ’em and Julian Edelman has proven capable of filling the Wes Welker role on underneath routes when called into action, which he will be this Sunday.

The difference with the 2009 Baltimore Ravens is offense. Finally, it’s a strength for Baltimore instead of a weakness. Ray Rice totalled more than 2,000 yards this season and looks like a Pro-Bowl running back for years to come. Even without an elite downfield target, Joe Flacco matured as a passer this season, topping 20 touchdowns. He can’t carry an offense but he’s no longer just a passenger.

It’s easy to pick New England based on its home success and Brady’s legacy but football handicappers shouldn’t be so quick to do so. Down the stretch, the Pats simply couldn’t make a stop against the elite offenses of Indianapolis, New Orleans and Houston. While the Ravens aren’t as potent, they’re one of the league’s highest-scoring teams and the play better defense than most offensive powerhouses. Simply put, they look like a better football team. Expect a close game but go for the minor upset. New England’s number is finally up.

Free pick: Ravens +3.5.