Fill out the following information to sign up for an account and receive our free picks. (Only your Email Address is Required) |
Articles from the Selected Date |
Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)
Over the years, we have gotten into many discussions and
debates about what are the easiest and toughest sports to handicap. Mike Godsey,
the namesake of GodsTips.com, made a
convincing argument it was football and had the track record to prove it,
especially in the NFL. Curt Thomas, a
900 number scorephone legend, felt the NBA was, by light years, the easiest to
accurately predict.
We decided, while others spent large amounts of money on
daily radio and weekly cable television infomercials, we’d invest our capital
into the product itself. We made Curt the first and only full-time NBA
handicapper for GodsTips.com, then known
as God’s Picks.
Among the many reasons that Thomas says pro hoops is the
most profitable is that the NBA has some of the most unheeded stats. We have
always preached time and time again, that ratings are so much more important
than rankings.
The way we have always exploited that of course, is first taking
the pure numbers that others just rank, and put them into their proper
perspective simply by comparing the numbers to that of the cumulative average
of their opponents to date.
Using the most basic numbers, points for or against, here
is again an illustration.
Most would consider a team that averages 107.1 points per
game to be a “better” offense than a team that scores 99.7. However, we decipher much further and much
more accurately by keeping the raw numbers in context.
Example:
Even more importantly, points for and points against are
less accurate in predicting future success than shooting percentage for and
against, we repeat, relative to their opponents normal average.
An angle occurs when one team has a significant ranking
advantage in points per game, but the other is rated higher in both points per
game and shooting percentage. The
perfect storm happens when this occurs at both ends of the court—offensively
and defensively.
To the most frequently asked question, why is it important
that one team have a higher advantage in rankings, but the other in ratings?
After all, wouldn’t a superior team have the edge in both?
The answer is absolutely if your only goal is to judge
which team is superior, but we are talking against the spread. Betting the odds
is finding the variation between perception (the line) and reality.
One not need be a Rhode Scholar to tell you the Spurs
would be very likely to beat the Knicks in
Also as to analyzing steals, blocked shots, free throws,
turnovers and so many other stats; yes we do account for those. Elaborating would take another article or
three or 20, because the answer goes well beyond a simple yes.
But we did demonstrate Handicapping 101 on how to measure
perception against reality, and GodsTips.com
NBA Guru Curt Thomas believes the “perfect storm” happens inordinately more
often in the NBA.
Joe Duffy’s sports betting selections are at www.GodsTips.com. He is the founder and CEO
of OffshoreInsiders.com, the top
source for free and premium sports betting content.