Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

The disparity is even more explicit in college sports, but it is colossal in professional sports handicapping as well. Rankings are just that, teams are ranked in specific categories first to last.  Ratings have teams “rated” in various categories comparative to a mean number.

For example, let’s say Clemson is playing Maryland in football.  Clemson runs for 252.4 (raw number) yards per game to rank (rankings of course) No. 7 in the country.  Maryland as an illustration averages 239.8 to rank 18^th.  According to those “rankings” and “raw numbers” Clemson has a better rushing offense. 

However rankings and raw numbers don’t scratch the surface.  Conversely a rating would say the cumulative average of Clemson’s previous opponents’ defense allows 232.2 rushing yards per game.  That would mean Clemson rushes for 20.2 more yards per game than their opponents normally allow (+20.2). 

If Maryland’s cumulative foes allow only 197.8 that would put them at (+40.2).  The inferior raw numbers make it look like Clemson is the better run offense by 12.6, but in the much more telling ratings, it’s actually Maryland by 20 yards per game.

So again, using the hypotheticals, here is a comparison (all illustrative rushing totals).  The “advantage” numbers are ALL CAPS:

Raw numbers:  CLEMSON 252.4;  Maryland 239.8

Rankings:          CLEMSON No. 7;  Maryland No. 18

Ratings:             Clemson +20.2;       MARYLAND +40.2

Furthermore rating both offenses and defenses is most accurate using yards per play, yards per pass and yards per rush.  These are much more telling as to whether teams outplay or underplay their stats. In short, games in which the proverbial “they have dominated them everywhere but on the scoreboard” are priceless to the handicapper.  The more deceptive a won/loss record is, the more opportunity.

Team stats in those categories are a much greater precursor of future performance than points per game.

Maybe Maryland runs the ball 16 more times per game than Clemson.  Yards per rush puts the raw numbers into better perspective, but yards per rush relative to the cumulative average of their opponents makes the stats rise to the level of truthful for handicapping excellence.

In basketball, shooting percentages offensively and defensively are more accurate than points per game.  This is true in no small part do to the fact that half court teams will have lower scoring games than up-tempo.  This is in no way to imply that ratings under this circumstance are flawless.  Slow down teams will both get fewer easy baskets and give up fewer, but in also weighing points per game, the flaws of each statistic can cancel out some of the deficiencies of the other.

In short, ratings put raw numbers into perspective much more so than rankings. By no means whatsoever do we disregard rankings, but the square player is shockingly oblivious to the value of the more judicious numbers.

Yet again we must emphasize mere statistics are only part of the equation.  But only a small percentage of handicappers are acute enough to use more precise ratings rather than the not to be trusted rankings.

Everything though we said about the strength and weaknesses of power ratings applies here.  The learned player must make adjustments for injuries both for a team and that of their previous opponents. 

Statistics can be used and statistics can be abused.  But knowing the right valuations to use is just as important as knowing how to adapt them.

Joe Duffy’s sports betting selections are at www.GodsTips.com   

Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

With apologies to the androgynous David Bowie, if you don’t want to be a richer man than don’t face the strain.  But if you do want to profit when handicapping basketball, your “gonna” have to be a changed man.

With the top high school players more likely to enter the NBA draft and if not stay in college for a cup of coffee, the sharp player has to recognize the complexities that it brings to handicapping.

There are many reasons why Young Turk handicappers have surpassed some old school prognosticators. The obvious reason is so many of the moth-eaten soothsayers use out-of-date handicapping techniques ignoring the Internet and various computer programs. However less obvious but even more importantly is also not acknowledging that once tried and true theories have become obsolete.

Among the examples:

Senior leadership: the great seniors of the past are now third and fourth year NBA players.  Maryland was the exception in 2002 not because of experience but it just so happened that Maryland was a throwback—two superstar seniors.  Lonny Baxter and Juan Dixon did not lead Maryland to the Promised Land because they were seniors, but because they were two NBA prospects that actually stayed around for four years.  Plenty of teams could compete with them as far as veterans on the roster, but none were in the same league talent wise.

Unlike the recent past, never handicap so-called leadership ahead of talent. Perhaps an academic school like Duke or Stanford will combine both, but if a teams four-year players are not going to be found on a lot All-Conference or All-American teams, don’t be counting on their birth certificates to compensate for lack of height, muscle and speed.

Talent will overcome lack of experience, but you can keep your bookmaker in business waiting for the reverse to happen.

If the opposite were the case, mid-major teams would wear the glass slipper every year, as they are the schools that have more four-year players than the big boys.

I will put my back-to-back great recruiting classes of sophs and frosh ahead of your senior laden team whose top player is a mid level Australian league back-up prospect.

Preseason publications: I use to quietly giggle at those who said preseason publications were worthless once the season tips off.  Related to what is stated above, the supermarket year books used to be very valuable as the squads with the most returning starters always got out of the gate the quickest, while teams with the most new quality talent would peak late. However once March came it was time to go back to betting on the vets.

Street & Smith’s and the many worthy imitations used to be ideal reference books for such. Of course one would have to make adjustments for injuries, but I successfully used my endless pile of storehouse arsenal throughout the year.

Up until the mid-90s I would compile the consensus predictions of all the publications.  I would weigh each conference’s official coaches’ poll 50/50 with the hacks’ cumulative opinion as I found these to be good power ratings.

When a team with consensus preseason conference rating of say 5.6 (average predicted finish) was a big favorite to a team with a rating of 2.4 and the teams were healthy, but the “5.6” team was playing much better, the comparative consensus ratings were a gold mine in sorting out overachieving and underachieving teams.

More times than not, the hypothetical situation said look for both teams to return to their talent level and bet the “2.4” team.

With such turnover on the rosters, teams are much streakier and so much harder to predict than 10 and 20 years ago.  Looking at a team’s recent three and five game performance is more valuable than ever. College hoop squads don’t “rise and fall to their level” like they used to.

Bigger homecourt advantage.  Don’t take me out of context. I never said there is no difference between a freshman and sophomore-laden team and one with a bunch of third and fourth-year starters.  Lack of maturity shows up on the road a lot more than at home. Home court advantage, especially in the first 15-20 games is as big as it ever was.  Home dogs and small favorites, especially when playing well, deserve a longer look-see more than ever before.

In 1985, those theories that worked in 1980 and even 1970 often held up.  No only has the game itself but thanks to technology the way sharp players handicap has also been greatly altered. Hence so had the way the lines are made and moved.

Too many dinosaur diviners are estimating today’s outcomes with yesterday’s attitude.  So handicappers, time better change you, because you can’t trace time.

Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com.  He has twice been Chair of a worldwide search committee to compile the world’s top sports services, once for the Freescoreboard scorephone and now at OffshoreInsiders.com

No matter how inferior his foe is, Lou Holtz’s subsequent opponent is always the paramount team in recent football history.  His own team is always overrated and fortunate not to be winless.  So says he anyway.  A first-class handicapper can differentiate between “coachspeak” and legitimate handicapping information.

The most indispensable bit of information that I look for is when coaches evaluate how his team executed in practice that week.  Coaches have demonstrated very trustworthy and impartial for such tidings that have proven priceless in foretelling the ATS outcome of games.

Anytime a coach has expressed either glee or disenchantment in how his team has functioned on the practice field the week preceding a game, this handicapper sees a gargantuan red flag.

Coaches are legendary about blowing smoke, but I have found when it comes to evaluating his team’s frame of mind as game day approaches, such pertinent specific quotes to be invaluable bits of handicapping information.

Player quotes are also magnificent gauges of a team’s mindset. This is especially the case in college sports when a team faces a potential letdown or revenge situation. Too often uneducated gamblers choose to conjecture when a team will overlook an opponent or when for example a large favorite will be motivated or unmotivated to run up a score.

Thank goodness the media needs some fodder and helps us by spotting such potential situations. While the scribes can often write worthless claptrap, when they center on motivational mindsets, I find infinitely meaningful articles covering such angles of consequence to handicappers.

Steve Spurrier is of course the antithesis of Holtz.  However back in December of 2001, Spurrier was conspicuously low-keyed before his traditional rivalry against a Tennessee team that he had beaten seven consecutive times and in many cases quite soundly.

Sirens went off as far as I was concerned.  The biggest trash talking coach in contemporary times gone by was quite the diplomat against a team and coach who he never failed to dis’ until that time.  His unspoken works said more than any that he could have uttered.  Thanks to such, we unloaded on one of our largest plays ever and the Vols not only snapped the jinx, they did it in Gainesville, winning outright 34-32.

So often it is the subtleties that separate the winners from the losers in sports handicapping.  You can quote me on that.

Duffy’s plays are part of the Dream Team at GodsTips.com.  He is perhaps the most published and respected author on sports gambling theory and has been featured as a regular guest as the handicapping expert on the Rick Ballou Show on Sporting News Radio, Gamblers Zoo national radio show, the Meat and Potatoes gambling show, Pro Fantasy Sports Internet radio and Grogan’s Fantasy Football show.