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Sports Betting Expert Brings Rationale View to Tim Donaghy and Point-Shaving Discussion
|Aug 21st, 2007 |
Since the bombshell that NBA ref Tim Donaghy is being investigated in a gambling scandal, speculation on how he may have affected the betting outcome of games has been rampant. Veteran sports betting expert Joe Duffy brings an educated view.
Articles related to recent scandals involving possible point shaving include:
I will try a different approach of getting into the mind of a potential game fixer. If hypothetically I wanted to influence the betting outcome of an NBA game with the aid of an NBA ref, how would I do it without leaving telltale signs?
As an example, an “expert” often quoted on ESPN.com asserts that 13 games last year in which Donaghy officiated were within one-point of the spread. Does ESPN use a fact checker? According the game log as published on that same ESPN.com, the number is actually 11, not 13. But fudging the number by more than 18 percent makes a much sexier story.
Most seem to assume pointspread chicanery is limited to giving money to an athlete, coach or official in return for altering the betting result of a game. This is not necessarily so.
The pointspread is not and will never be a prediction on the outcome of the game. It is a “prediction” on what the spread needs to be to get as close to an equal amount of money on each side. The public loves betting superior against bottom shelf squads and this is accounted for in the line.
Every wannabe detective thinks they found the statistical smoking gun that Tim Donaghy pointshaved games. These conclusions are based in no small part on the epiphany that big underdogs cover at a disproportionate rate. No kidding, sharp players have known that for years.
ABOUT JOE DUFFY:
Joe Duffy is CEO of AJA Enterprises, which produces many of the top sites in the sports betting industry: OffshoreInsiders.com, JoeDuffy.net, another others. He is founding GM of Scorephone.com/Freescoreboard.com, which was the nation’s premier audiotext sports information source.
OffshoreInsiders.com is the premier source for free sports picks, live betting odds, real time sports scores and free sports gaming information.
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