Duffy is the leading authority on sports gaming strategy and issues related to
sports betting. An expert guest on several nationally syndicated radio
programs, his articles have appeared on top websites and publications all over
Since the bombshell that NBA ref Tim Donaghy is
being investigated in a gambling scandal, speculation on how he may have
affected the betting outcome of games has been rampant. Veteran sports betting
expert Joe Duffy brings an educated view.
Articles related to recent scandals involving
possible point shaving include:
I will try a different approach of getting into the
mind of a potential game fixer. If hypothetically I wanted to influence the
betting outcome of an NBA game with the aid of an NBA ref, how would I do it
without leaving telltale signs?
As an example, an “expert” often
quoted on ESPN.com asserts that 13 games last year in which Donaghy officiated
were within one-point of the spread. Does ESPN use a fact checker? According
the game log as published on that same ESPN.com, the number is actually 11, not
13. But fudging the number by more than 18 percent makes a much sexier story.
Most seem to assume pointspread chicanery is limited
to giving money to an athlete, coach or official in return for altering the
betting result of a game. This is not necessarily so.
The pointspread is not and will never be a
prediction on the outcome of the game.
It is a “prediction” on what the spread needs to be to get as close to
an equal amount of money on each side. The
public loves betting superior against bottom shelf squads and this is accounted
for in the line.
Every wannabe detective thinks they found the
statistical smoking gun that Tim Donaghy pointshaved
games. These conclusions are based in no
small part on the epiphany that big underdogs cover at a disproportionate rate.
No kidding, sharp players have known that for years.
ABOUT JOE DUFFY:
Duffy is CEO of AJA Enterprises, which produces many of the top sites in the
sports betting industry: OffshoreInsiders.com,
JoeDuffy.net, another others. He is founding GM of
Scorephone.com/Freescoreboard.com, which was the nation’s premier audiotext
sports information source.
OffshoreInsiders.com is the
premier source for free sports picks, live betting odds, real time sports
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