Mobile Nav
Free premium picks for deposit at vetted sportsbooks. See "free premium picks" link
Login or Create a New Account Email Address: Password:
Fill out the following information to sign up for an account and receive our free picks.
(Only your Email Address is Required)
First Name:
Last Name:
Email Address:
State: Zip:
Enter this code:
Your Selected Article is Below - Return to All Articles

Winning Ugly Is How Pro Gamblers Bet NFL
Jun 23rd, 2022

One of the calamitous self-fulfilling prophecies in sports gambling is the blockhead who insists on mindlessly betting on the far superior side. They mitigate this by proclaiming they’d prefer to lose waging on a prodigious team (like the Patriots during the Brady era) than on a dreadful one. Therefore bookies shade the line towards the superior teams and against the bottom feeders, while sharps pounce upon the empirical rule to buy low and sell high.

Why would anyone want to bet against a team with a winning percentage of .850 or better, especially corroborated with at least 12 wins? No rational person could contemplate staking against a team that predominate. Then again, we pros would call attention to the fact stated teams are a wretched 48-80-3 since 1996. In fact, when underdogs, they are a malodorous 3-14 for .176 percent.  

Wager hard-earned money on a gruesome team? That’s just embracing punishment. Experts counter with the fact an underdog with winning percentage of .150 or less and at least four losses are 350-269-17, even greater on the road at 195-167-4.

Why would anyone not crave to bankroll the much hotter team? The rejoinder if fact based. When I say opposite streak, it pertains to one team on a SU winning streak and the other on a losing streak. If New England won three in a row, the Giants, their adversary lost two in a row, the “combined opposite streaks” would be five.

Not outrageously, the greater the number of the dichotomous streaks are, the lower the ATS winning percentage of the ascending team plummets.

Here is the ATS record of the hotter team based on the cumulative streak they are on.

Minimum opposite SU streak of hotter team

ATS Mark (winning percentage)


198-228-7 (46.5)


135-160-7 (45.8)


89-113-4 (44.1)


57-82-3 (41)


36-64-1 (36)

When Joeybagodonuts sees a team that has won their last seven confronting a team that has flunked outright in five straight, Joey may pass. He may bet the hotter team, but there is slim chance he will bet the ice-cold squad. Therefore, if the genuine line should be -7, Joey will have to lay more like -9. This is pivotal for a gambler. Of course, it’s excruciating to root for a grossly inferior and colder team, but the payoff is magnificent.

Great ESPN evergreen story about Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy’s rise to greatness an where he got his start! Duffy is CEO of

Posted by Joe Duffy (Profile) | Permalink | Comments (0) | Trackbacks (0)
Joe Duffy is founder of featuring the world’s top sports service selections.
There are no comments for this article

Post Comment

The Trackback URL for this article is:

You must be logged in to post a comment.
Go to the top of the page to login or create an account
< June 2023 >