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No Place Like Home, Except on the Road |
Nov 9th, 2006
Joe Duffy (www.GodsTips.com)
If there is one consistent general theory or
category/sub-category that applies to successful handicapping in every sport,
it would be exploiting home/road anomalies. That is discovering select teams
that play significantly better at home than on the road or in some cases visa
versa. In baseball this is also true
with pitchers. We feel the term “home/road
anomalies” is more accurate than the commonly accepted HFA
(home field advantage) that many handicappers use. This holds to form much more so than any other variances
such as rested/unrested in the NBA, lefty/righty
stats in baseball, grass/turf in football and baseball, day/night etc. In the
NBA in particular nothing jumps out at us more than a team that is a home dog
despite a fairly significantly better home SU record than the road team’s away
mark. We have explained in previous
articles why so many systems and theories that hold up don’t Amake sense@
to the inexpert eye but make dollars to the trained eye. Obviously in such situations the road team is the better
overall team and hence the public still prefers betting the superior team even
if closer scrutiny at the home/road anomalies nullifies the supremacy. Then
again the notion of the general public actually being aware of the home/road
anomalies is laughable anyway. This is of course assuming there are no major roster
changes via injury, trade etc that have changed one or both team’s dynamics. If injuries or roster changes explain why there is a road
favorite, said theory does not apply.
Likewise one must still put the circumstances under inspection. In the NBA and NHL “remember them?) for example the schedule maker generally favors the home
team. If there is a three game in four nights or five in seven nights versus a
much more rested team, it is by and large a scenario that sees the home team
benefiting. But sharpies must be aware of both the rule and the exception. Be cognizant there are actually teams that play better on
the road or more accurately from a handicapping standpoint their home/road
variance is less than the norm. Thus especially when getting points they become
of great value on the highway, but are also great go-against plays at
home. The teams with disproportionately
better play on the road will sneak under the oddsmaking
radar much more than Jekyll & Hyde better-at-home teams. Boston, Philadelphia, New York and Chicago are examples of
sports cities that far and away have the most passionate fans. Passion is a double edged sword. There are no better fans and hence home
field/court advantage when the home team is playing well, but conversely when a
massive slump hits so often being host is a home field disadvantage. Pittsburgh is one of the great football towns in the
nation and even in the post Steele Curtain days the Steelers were pretty
invincible at home. It’s unlikely anyone knowledgeable would dispute the fervor
of the faithful intensified their HFA. But the easily
rattled mega talented Kordell Stewart was a much better quarterback on the
road throughout his career than at he
was the confluence of the Allegheny, Ohio and Monongahela. The boo-birds became
the 12th man for the wrong team.
This is a prime example as circumstances changed there was also a
colossal modulation in home/road variance.
Conversely the same can be true but for completely
different reasons in Miami and Atlanta for example. Arguably the two worst pro sports towns in
the USA the empty arena at Phillips Arena in Atlanta for the Hawks is no
benefit but when things are going well the bandwagon fills up quickly. Ask the Heat. One pony towns like Portland and Sacramento
had magnified eminence on their home courts because of fan enthusiasm and
conversely were disproportionately overvalued on the road. I have seen some worthy power ratings in my day. Most take into account
individual HFA that is acknowledging that the extent
of home field advantage is not across the board. However with only a few exceptions even the
more accurate rankings are oblivious to the equally important piece of
information that road disadvantage is also not global. Recognizing one and not the other can
actually be counterproductive and be another example of the would-be
handicapping kingpin outsmarting oneself. Any time there are off-court or off-field distractions so
often the road is a sanctuary. We see
this often with college teams under investigation for the proverbial Apossible sanctions@.
From a handicapping standpoint these teams become undervalued on the
road but overvalued at home. This is why the Trail Blazers went from a great
home court to the Jail Blazers struggling in Oregon. Exploiting these deviations is a three-step process. First one must find the statistical
irregularity. Then one must analyze why
the anomalism exists. Finally one must
accurately conclude whether the state of affairs that led up to the deviation
has been altered. If so, one must disregard the anomaly. If there is no significant fluctuation in the
then and now comparison, the sharp player has a winning angle to build towards
the preponderance. To paraphrase a famous movie line, when searching for your
wallet’s desire look no further than a team’s own backyard. Just don’t forget how the other team performs away from
their house. Duffy’s plays are part of the Dream Team at GodsTips.com He is perhaps the most
published and respected author on sports gambling theory and has been featured
as a regular guest as the handicapping expert on the Rick Ballou
Show on Sporting News Radio, the Meat and Potatoes gambling show, Pro Fantasy
Sports Internet radio and Grogan’s Fantasy Football show. His Wise Guy Plays
available exclusively at www.GodsTips.com
are widely respected as the biggest play in the handicapping abyss. |