It’s time for Week 5 NFL picks and we turn to one of the top football betting experts in the land, Matt Rivers who was the winningest handicapper ever on a large network of handicapping sites before being promoted to The Show.

Rivers has a pick on New England at Denver. Shop around as the Pats are -3.5 at many sportsbooks but -3 at SportsBook. He says lay the number on New England and here is why:  

I am as shocked as anybody about this 4-0 start to the season for the Broncos but I do give them the props they deserve. Josh McDaniels’ team is not a great team at all and will lose their fair share of games but they are a lot better than many thought and here at Mile High or Invesco or whatever they call the stadium these days certainly will be a challenge for Tom Brady and the Patriots.
 
When all is said and done though I don’t see Kyle Orton outplaying Brady and helping his team become 5-0. That just seems like a bit much. Granted I’m not at all calling for a blowout as the home Broncos will come to play and boast weapons with Brandon Marshall now wanting to play and Knowshon Moreno improving by the week but Brady against Orton and Bill Belichick against McDaniels is just too much in our favor to pass up only laying this field goal, even on the road.
 
The Pats are not the same well oiled machine we saw a few seasons back, I admit that, as they certainly have some issues and are far from invincible. But Wes Welker makes a tremendous difference to Brady and will have his usual seven or so catches probably moving the chaines three or four times and scoring a touchdown. Then you have Randy Moss who is a force even when he is not playing well.
 
Fred Taylor is out which is not great but New England really has not had much of a running game the past few seasons and today will be able to get away with it one more time.
 
I don’t see Denver winning this game, I just don’t. They have had a great start to the season but all good things must come to and end and to get Brady, Moss, Belichick and the still dangerous and potent Patriots at a bargain basement price is cool with me. 

Free pick: Patriots (-3) at Denver.

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